Peter Bradshaw’s Bafta predictions: who will win – and who should?

Best actress? … Cate Blanchett in Tár. Photograph: TCD/Alamy

Best film

Will win Tár
Should win Tár
Shoulda been a contender Aftersun

Best director

Will win Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Shoulda been a contender Chinonye Chukwu, Till

Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer

Will win Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Should win Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Shoulda been a contender Ruth Paxton, A Banquet

Best British film

Will win Living
Should win Living
Shoulda been a contender Emily

Best supporting actor? … Brendan Gleeson (right) with Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin. Photograph: Landmark Media/Alamy

Best film not in the English language

Will win All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win The Quiet Girl
Shoulda been a contender The Innocents

Best documentary

Will win Fire of Love
Should win Moonage Daydream
Shoulda been a contender Three Minutes: A Lengthening

Best animated film

Will win Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Should win Marcel the Shell with Shoes on
Shoulda been a contender Apollo 10 1/2

Best original screenplay

Will win Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Shoulda been a contender Owen Kline, Funny Pages

Outstanding British debut? … Aftersun. Photograph: Sarah Makharine

Best adapted screenplay

Will win Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson, All Quiet on the Western Front
Should win Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Shoulda been a contender Sjón and Robert Eggers, The Northman

Best actor

Will win Austin Butler, Elvis
Should win Bill Nighy, Living
Shoulda been a contender Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Best actress

Will win Cate Blanchett, Tár
Should win Cate Blanchett, Tár
Shoulda been a contender Tang Wei, Decision to Leave

Best supporting actor

Will win Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Shoulda been a contender Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Best supporting actress

Will win Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Shoulda been a contender Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best music

Will win Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Should win Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Shoulda been a contender John Williams, The Fabelmans

Best cinematography

Will win Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Should win Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Shoulda been a contender Kate McCullough, The Quiet Girl

• The Baftas ceremony is on Sunday 19 February and will be broadcast on BBC One and iPlayer.