In the Perth CBD, businesses are battening down to prepare for what they anticipate will be a coronavirus storm, after watching what happened to Melbourne and Sydney over the summer.
So much so, you could be forgiven for thinking Perth was already in the middle of an emergency if you looked around the CBD on a weekday.
Many of the office towers, malls and footpaths that are usually bustling with office workers are unusually quiet.
Google mobility data showed there were 41 per cent fewer people at the city's public transport hubs and a 36 per cent drop in visitors to retail and recreation venues between January and February, compared to two years ago.
The City of Perth said its parking data revealed a fall of almost 20 per cent in the number of cars using its car parks or street parking bays at the start of this month.
It's a similarly sparse scene in the shops and hospitality venues whose survival depends on office workers opening their wallets and whose owners have already had to sack staff this year.
Perth worker exodus as COVID spreads
This kind of shadow lockdown is not what you would expect in a state which only began recording daily COVID-19 case numbers in the 100s this week and is yet to open its border to the world.
This is also a state whose economy has performed strongly during the pandemic, where unemployment is low and office vacancy rates are starting to improve after being the worst in the nation.
What's going on?
There are two factors at play, according to Aaron Morey, the chief economist at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry WA.
The first is that many businesses have already decided to allow their staff to work from home full-time or part-time, after watching rising COVID-19 case numbers.
Many have split their workforces into remote teams and office teams to minimise the risk of everyone being absent through sickness or having to quarantine as a close contact.
"A lot of professional services firms have gone to a hybrid working model where they have some people working in the office, some people working from home," Mr Morey said.
"We identify that about 64 per cent of those professional services firms — so whether that's in real estate, ICT, finance, insurance, professional services, those sorts of businesses, which are the lifeblood of the local CBD retail activity — have moved to a model where much of their staff are working from home."
The other factor is that many people are avoiding crowded places like the CBD to reduce their risk of infection.
"So it's a combination of those factors, which is overall adding up to reducing the amount of retail and recreation activity, particularly in the CBD," Mr Morey said.
Perth's hospitality stalwarts in dire straits
It's a perfect storm for retail and hospitality operators, who have fewer levers to pull to keep their businesses alive in a situation where a lot of factors are out of their control.
Many are frustrated that many companies are already reducing the number of workers they have at their CBD offices, despite no stay-at-home orders by the WA government.
Just last week, the operators of the historic Royal Hotel – who have won accolades for their food – had to close their Willi's wine bar and let 11 employees go.
Executive chef Chase Weber said the hotel's earnings were down between 70 and 80 per cent compared to last year.
Mr Weber said Willi's had been popular with office workers, who stopped there for a drink, lunch or a meeting, but they had to close it "because no-one's there".
Plan to attract city residents
To help their business survive what they expect will be some tough months ahead, they have also changed their strategy to try to attract people who live, rather than work, in the city.
But Mr Weber said it was hard to plan when the WA government was yet to release a plan for reopening the state's borders or indicate whether it would provide financial support for operators hurt by public health measures.
"The most annoying thing is that there is no end in sight," he said.
Andy Freeman is another established hospitality operator who has had to sack casual employees and is frustrated the city is already so quiet.
He said staff numbers across his seven CBD bars, pubs and restaurants had shrunk from 150 to 60 in recent months, with patron numbers starting to drop once mask mandates were introduced in late December.
"It's so quiet in there it's spooky. We haven't even got a lot of Omicron. We're not doing thousands of cases a day."
Mr Freeman said he was running targeted campaigns just to keep customers visiting his businesses so he can keep them alive until the bad times pass.
"It's not about making profit anymore," he said.
"It's just about weathering the storm and trying not to lose money or losing as little as we can with no government support."
Hospitality, retail need cash injection
Mr Freeman wrote an open letter to Mr McGowan two weeks ago, asking for clear information on when the border would open and a road map to help them navigate through the coming downturn.
"We desperately need direction, clarity, support and transparency in terms of the government's 'plan' for the state's valuable hospitality and related industries," he wrote.
"Tell us how these industries can survive."
Last week, Mr McGowan announced a new $77 million grants scheme to support businesses that had been affected by his government's backflip on its plan to open the WA border on February 5.
Sectors receiving the funding include international tourism and education.
Retail and hospitality 'need help too'
Both the Chamber of Commerce and Industry WA (CCIWA) and WA branch of the Property Council of Australia believe there is a strong case for similar help for retail and hospitality businesses.
Last month, CCIWA wrote to Mr McGowan asking for financial support, such as grants, for businesses hurt by isolation requirements or drops in revenue as Omicron spread.
In the letter, it said nearly two-thirds of small businesses surveyed were expecting their cash flow to worsen.
The Property Council's WA executive director Sandra Brewer said their pre-budget submission would include a request for grants to CBD businesses, including targeted support for retailers and hospitality venues.
"We'd like to see some specific support for the CBD which is not only affected by changing patterns of office work but is also one of the prime places that is visited and patronised by international students and domestic and international tourists," she said.
Commercial real estate lawyer Shannon Davies said he had been contacted by hospitality tenants looking for help because they were having a tough time. This could include rent relief or government grants.
"There's definitely a class of retailer or hospitality operator in the CBD who is looking for some kind of assistance and they don't care where it comes from," he said.
