The Bank of England today delivered sober truths to a Government drunk on optimism.
With little else to sell Boris Johnson has peddled a promise of a post-Brexit Britain bounding ahead of our economic rivals.
That bluster was punctured by the gloomy forecasts from the Bank.
In the real world, as opposed to the fantasy island inhabited by the Tories, a recession looms, inflation is set to hit 10% and average energy bills will rise this October to around £2,800.
The Government will try to hide behind the situation in Ukraine but Vladimir Putin’s aggression will only provide them with a limited amount of cover.
As people struggle to afford basic necessities, have to choose between heating and eating and worry how they will pay their mortgages, bills and rent they will not blame Moscow for their predicament.
They will ask why Rishi Sunak did so little to help in his Spring statement and why the government is the only major economy in Europe to be raising taxes at time of global financial turbulence.
They will also ask why the Conservatives are so reluctant to impose a windfall tax when BP and Shell have reaped record profits off the back of the war in Ukraine.
In the 1980 US presidential election Ronald Reagan sealed his victory over Jimmy Carter by asking voters “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
This is the question that will be haunting the Tories as they prepare for the next UK general election.
What will they have to show for their years in office?
There is little evidence of levelling up, homes have not been built, the NHS is buckling under the pressure of a six-million backlog of cases and the economy is in the doldrums.
They will try to bribe their way out of trouble with the promise of tax cuts but the rises in inflation and interest rates have increased the cost of government borrowing which in turn has eaten into Sunak’s election war chest.
The Prime Minister will also try to distract attention by going into battle with Europe over the Northern Ireland protocol.
This would risk a trade war with the EU that could further damage the fragile UK economy.
Johnson’s jingoism looks increasingly misplaced.
There is little appetite for someone trying to sell sunshine to a nation in the market for umbrellas.
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