Early June in the bohemian enclave of Montpelier in Bristol, the sun warms the tightly packed terrace houses, delis and cafes. Flashes of Labour red that may once have adorned the windows in previous general elections are notably absent. In their place are badges of green, displayed with pride.
Enjoying the sun outside the Bristolian cafe on Picton Street is Norhan Nabeeh, 34, a secondary teacher of psychology and religious studies who has always previously voted Labour. She won’t be doing so this year.
“It’s primarily Keir Starmer’s leadership,” she says, listing the reasons she has turned her back on Labour.
“Their views and actions on Gaza and Palestine. The way they’re treating black and brown women – like Diane Abbott and Faiza Shaheen – I’m not going to vote for a party that treats women, particularly women of colour, that way.
“Bristol Central is a constituency that cares most about immigration and welcoming immigration. People feel betrayed by Labour.”
Montpelier sits within the newly formed constituency of Bristol Central, where the Green party is more confident than ever of gaining its second MP in co-leader Carla Denyer. She hopes to take the seat from Labour’s incumbent MP – and culture secretary hopeful – Thangam Debbonaire.
Debbonaire says she is not frustrated. “I’m the first woman of colour, to my knowledge, ever to represent any seat in the south-west … [Green] supporters say they want a change in government – it’s only going to be a Labour government – but their party is choosing to target a Labour MP not a Tory MP, to campaign against the Labour party – that’s their choice. That’s democracy. Personally frustrating? It’s not about me.”
The Greens’ confidence comes partly from some choice maths. Firstly, the constituency boundary has been redrawn, with Debbonaire’s current patch of Bristol West to be scrapped. The Greens believe some measures show this alone will halve Debbonaire’s sizeable majority from about 28,000 to about 15,000.
Then, a little over a month ago, the local elections gave the Greens a huge boost. Every single council ward within the Bristol Central parliamentary constituency elected a Green councillor. The party gained 10 seats across the city, mostly from Labour, bringing its total to 34. The Bristol city council leader is now a Green, Tony Dyer.
But why Bristol and why now? In Montpelier, voters rarely raise environmental or climate issues among their primary concerns although many do touch upon them, occasionally mentioning Labour’s U-turn on its £28bn green investment pledge. It is rather the differing positions between Labour and the Green party on the conflict in Israel and Gaza that is cited, as well as Labour’s perceived shift to the right under Starmer.
Up the road from the Bristolian, Thomas Chadwick, 52, who runs the Radford Mill Farm Shop, is planning to vote Green. “When Labour turned against Palestine, that was big for a lot of people. I used to work for Thangam Debbonaire. For her not to support people in Palestine – she is happy to repeat the party line over any ethical choice. Labour just feel like Tory-lites.”
The Greens have called for a “full bilateral ceasefire” and the suspension of arms exports to Israel, while Labour backs a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and has called for the publication of government legal advice on arms exports. Starmer’s approach is viewed broadly as mirroring the Tories.
On Israel-Gaza, Debbonaire argues that it was only Labour that was able to push through a motion in parliament calling for an immediate ceasefire. “So everything that the Green party locally can only protest about, we’re actually trying to do nationally and our motion on that got through and, in government, we will actually be a party of government that wants that peace process back on track.”
Sitting in the Merchant Arms pub in the Hotwells area of the constituency before an evening’s canvassing, Denyer acknowledges the conflict has played a role in the party’s recent improved performance but insists it is only part of the picture.
Asked if the Greens would be in the same position today had the 7 October attacks in Israel never happened, she says: “I’m sure it will make a difference of a few percentage points but people were already, of course, angry with what the Conservatives have done to the country over the last 14 years, [and] they were already telling us that they were disappointed by the Labour party before October.
“People sometimes bring up Gaza, sometimes bring up the climate U-turn, sometimes bring up the failure of the Labour frontbench to visit picket lines and speak to striking workers. The list goes on and on.”
Denyer also cites housing as a big issue for her would-be constituents, with the Green party’s support of rent control as a major draw, especially for young voters. The average house price in the constituency is about £467,000, compared with about £313,000 across Britain.
But her downplaying of Gaza as an issue does not quite sit with some of the party’s campaign tactics so far. A letter posted through doors in Bristol Central featuring the Palestinian flag and images of destruction in Gaza appeared to be from concerned residents – but the small print shows it is in fact a leaflet from Denyer and the Green party.
The letter says that Debbonaire – who is referred to as “our local Labour MP” – “followed Keir Starmer’s order to abstain from voting for a ceasefire in parliament, while so many other MPs rebelled”.
The shift from Labour to the Greens is evident among the party’s volunteers out in force knocking on doors in Hotwells and up the hill into the affluent streets of Clifton and its grand Georgian crescents.
Among them are Rebecca Bentley-Price, 25, a classics master’s student who lives in Clifton Downs. She used to be a Labour supporter but has been volunteering for the Greens since January. “It was mainly the shift to the right I saw in Labour,” she says, clutching a clipboard, preparing to knock on another door. “The Green party was completely aligned with how I feel about how we should be treating people.”
Denyer knocks on the basement flat door of Monsoon Modi, who is barely able to contain her glee at meeting the co-leader of the party.
Modi, 23, works in commercial operations at the carbon-offsetting start-up Ecologi, and is soon to study for a master’s in environmental sustainability. She has lived in the constituency for just over a year and chose to move to Bristol because of its “green base”.
She says: “The climate crisis is something I’m really passionate about, I definitely experience eco-anxiety. The Greens are much stronger than Labour and the Tories on the climate. The climate crisis is at the heart of the party.”
Challenged over whether Modi was a plant, knowing media would be accompanying the party on the doorstep, Denyer laughs. “Not at all,” she says. “Welcome to Bristol.”
The momentum does seem to be with the Greens – the party chose the constituency to launch its national campaign and Bristol heroes Massive Attack came out for the party on Tuesday – but the Labour majority and history cannot be ignored. While support for the party in Bristol Central is not as visible, the contest is going to be undeniably close.
Prue Hardwick, who lives in Bishopston, home of one of Bristol’s most vibrant high streets in Gloucester Road, said Debbonaire was an “exceptional candidate”, who was “articulate, strategic, down to earth and direct”, while David Spence, 54, a school improvement lead, also in Bishopston, said he would be voting Labour. He added: “Thangam is a really committed local MP who is respected for her industry and humble approach. She’ll be a minister – hopefully – and so will be an important voice for Bristol.”
There is a sense that Labour is not relishing the contest in Bristol Central. The journalist Owen Jones recently located Debbonaire on the campaign trail in Bishopston, close to Kings Lawn Tennis Club, for his independent YouTube channel but she declined to answer questions.
The Guardian requested time with Labour in Bristol but the party ultimately offered an interview over Zoom with Debbonaire, during which she was nevertheless fiercely passionate about in her pitch to the constituency and country.
She cautions strongly against the idea that any voter who wants to see a change in government can afford to abandon Labour.
“We will need a bigger swing than we had in 1997,” she says. “It’s so far from being a done deal.”
“As a party of protest, an opposition backbench MP can do so little, whereas as secretary of state with a Labour government we can actually change things, we can do what I came to parliament to do, which was to change things, to make things better.”
The dividing line between the two frontrunners in Bristol Central is “the difference between protest and power,” Debbonaire says. “But it’s also the difference between an MP who would have to learn the job from scratch and one who’s learned how to do it over nine years, has been preparing for government for the last few years and is ready to get started.”
• This article was amended on 10 June 2024 to remove an image from 2015 that was added in error.
