People around Vladimir Putin are growing “concerned” about the cost of his war but he is showing no sign of wanting a peace deal, say western officials.
They do not believe that his war aims have changed since he launched his invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
The assessment came as Volodymyr Zelensky is touring European capitals with his “Victory Plan” outlining how he hopes the conflict could be brought to an end.
Ukraine’s president has also told how he has held fresh talks with Joe Biden on the supply of long-range missiles from the West which could be used to strike deep inside Russia, a consent which Washington has so far refused to give.
Putin is believed to be hoping that Donald Trump wins the US presidential election in November and that the resolve of the West in backing Kyiv then fades.
But so far, America, Britain, Germany, France and other allies have kept up their support for Ukraine.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers have already been killed or wounded in the conflict, with high casualties among Ukrainian forces, and thousands if not tens of thousands of civilians killed in bombings and other attacks.
Russia has been hit with western sanctions and has shifted its economy towards supporting Putin’s war.
“We do see evidence of people around him being concerned at the cost of the war both in terms of the economic cost being harder and harder to manage, in terms of some of the materiel cost of that,” said one western official.
“I imagine that Putin is aware of that.
“But at this point, our really quite strong assessment is his war aims in Ukraine are unchanged.
“There is a lot of talk in various circles about some kind of evolution in the nature of the war but I would say it’s really, really hard to see Putin compromising any time soon and it’s equally really hard to see Ukraine being willing to compromise on its basic sovereignty and freedom.”
Peter Kyle, a UK government Cabinet minister, last month claimed that Putin is “increasingly erratic” and “volatile” in his behaviour which was fuelling instability in the Ukraine region and around the world.
Putin’s forces are expected to make more tactical gains in coming months in eastern Ukraine and to reclaim more of the territory seized in the Kursk region of Russia by Ukrainian forces in a surprise attack in the summer.
The Kursk attack is believed to have made it more difficult for Kyiv’s army to defend parts of the frontline in Ukraine as resources have had to be diverted there.
Russian troops, though, are not expected to make any dramatic breakthroughs or to be able to advance at speed as many of their attacks are grinding and involving small units of ten to 12 soldiers, often on foot.
So, the conflict appears likely to drag on into 2025 and 2026 when Putin may find it harder economically, as well as with the supply of military equipment and mobilisation of troops, to step up his war effort, according to a western official.
“Putin’s desire all the way through has been to subjugate Ukraine, he sees it as part of his historic mission, he added.
“I think he will be very hard to dissuade from that.
“He is very much looking to what happens in the US presidential elections, he is very much hoping that western resolve will fade in some way.
“He has had no comfort in any of that so far.”
Russian armed forces have been doubling the number of “kamikaze” drone attacks on Ukraine in recent months, say western officials.
They say that there were 350 such strikes with one-way unmanned aerial vehicles in July, 750 in August, and 1,500 in September.
“Whether we will continue to see this exponential doubling of attacks remains to be seen,” said one western official.
“But Russia is upping the ante in that particular domain quite significantly.”
Russian forces attacked energy infrastructure in the southern region of Mykolaiv as they launched 56 drones and one missile in an overnight assault on Ukraine, according to military sources on Thursday.
Mykolaiv regional governor Vitaliy Kim said the attack had cut power in some areas and there were no casualties.
The Ukrainian air force also reported five hits to infrastructure facilities in regions near the front line.
It said 22 drones were shot down and that it lost track of 27 drones that likely fell into Ukrainian territory following active electronic warfare measures. Two more drones went to Belarus.
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said drone debris fell on the land of a kindergarten in the capital.
Mr Zelensky said on Thursday that Ukraine would continue to fight against Russia’s invasion even if Kyiv’s Western allies did not agree to support his “Victory Plan”.
The Ukranian president, who is on a visit to Brussels to pitch his plan to European leaders, said that Kyiv would also press on with preparations for a second peace summit.
He also told how Ukrainian intelligence has information that some North Korean officers have already been deployed in Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia.
He claimed that North Korea was preparing to send a total of 10,000 soldiers to fight against Ukraine.
