The Sentinel nuclear warhead program, developed by Northrop Grumman, is currently facing an 81% cost overrun, with estimated costs reaching nearly $141 billion. Despite the budget challenges, the Pentagon is proceeding with the program, citing the increasing threats posed by China and Russia as a driving force.
This program marks the first significant upgrade to the ground-based component of the nuclear triad in over six decades and aims to replace the aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. The extensive project involves the construction of a new missile, as well as the modernization of 450 silos across five states, launch control centers, three nuclear missile bases, and various testing facilities.
Concerns were previously raised by government watchdogs regarding the manageability of such a large-scale program. Military budget officials acknowledged that the initial cost estimates were insufficient due to a lack of comprehensive understanding of the required modernization.
The cost overrun triggered a Nunn-McCurdy breach, necessitating a thorough review to determine the program's viability. Despite the financial challenges, the Pentagon emphasizes the critical need to modernize the nuclear forces in response to existing threats.
The review identified the command-and-launch segment of the Sentinel program as the primary source of cost growth, particularly in the communication and control infrastructure essential for missile launch operations. To address the escalating costs, the program will undergo restructuring, potentially scaling back certain modernization aspects and exploring more cost-effective alternatives.
While the increased costs will be offset by reductions in other programs, the Air Force anticipates that the majority of the cost increases will occur beyond the next five fiscal years, alleviating immediate pressure for program cuts.
