Since the end of the civil war and the genocide against the Tutsis in 1994, Rwanda’s ruling party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), has dominated the political space. Its leader, Paul Kagame, scored upwards of 90% in the previous three presidential elections, and this week appears to have beaten his own record, with provisional results showing that he has won 99.15% of the vote. But this victory has been won while excluding several prominent opponents from standing – including me. This makes the just-concluded elections no different to previous ones, and only underscores the country’s lack of democracy.
In 2010, I willingly returned to Rwanda from exile in the Netherlands with the intention of registering my political party and running in the presidential election scheduled later that year. But I was arrested immediately after openly criticising the Rwandan government’s reconciliation policy in relation to the 1994 genocide, and convicted following a trial that was widely condemned as politically motivated and grossly unfair.
I was released from prison by Kagame in 2018, but was still banned from leaving the country. Five years after my release, I applied for rehabilitation to the high court of Rwanda so I could run in the most recent presidential elections and travel abroad to visit my family in the Netherlands. The court refused my application. Over the past 14 years, I have been not only blocked from standing as a political representative, but also from reuniting with my loved ones. I have missed my children’s weddings, the birth of my grandchildren, and been unable to visit my seriously ill husband.
Amnesty International described the 2017 elections in Rwanda as having taken place in a “climate of fear and repression”, while in 2024, other credible challengers to the ruling party, such as Bernard Ntaganda, have also faced unfair systematic legal issues. Like me, he was arrested at the start of the presidential candidate registration period in 2010, and went on to serve four years in prison. Like me, he applied for rehabilitation, hoping to participate in the 2024 elections, but the court rejected his appeal. It’s all part of the silencing of dissent that has characterised Kagame’s 24-year rule.
But legally barring candidates from standing is not the only way the system has prevented differing opinions being heard. The constitution was amended last year to allow presidential and parliamentary elections to be held at the same time. But state-owned and independent media in Rwanda overwhelmingly covered the presidential campaign over parliamentary candidates. This skewed media landscape prevented aspiring parliamentarians from adequately communicating their political programmes, thereby stifling comprehensive public discussion on Rwanda’s future. This phenomenon only reinforces the lack of diversity that exists as a result of barring presidential candidates like myself.
If I had been allowed to stand I would have discussed the need for governance reform in Rwanda to enable our country to achieve genuine democratisation through inclusive dialogue among political and civil society stakeholders. I would also have emphasised the importance of reinforcing our existing reconciliation policy by remembering all victims of Rwanda’s troubled history.
Instead, voters were presented with no concrete plans for how to tackle real issues, such as growing inequalities and increasing debt, the deteriorating relationships with neighbouring countries – especially the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi – or the Rwandan refugees who are settled in neighbouring states or scattered across the world. Those challenges risk bringing more insecurity to Rwanda in the near future. The RPF is keen to take credit for Rwanda’s economic recovery, which has seen GDP grow by an average of 7.2% a year between 2012 and 2022. It is less vocal about reports from the World Bank that almost half the population lives on less than $2.15 (£1.65) a day.
During the campaign, Kagame was at pains to defend Rwandan democracy – which he says is based on the uniqueness of the country. He called upon Rwanda’s youth to defend it against those who criticise the government on social media. He even found time to mention my name in a derogatory manner twice during the campaign, even though I was barred from taking part.
When asked about his priorities for the next five years, Kagame responded that he plans to continue on the same path towards rebuilding Rwanda. But my country will only truly thrive when it has a functioning democracy that allows dissent, debate and different perspectives.
Continually winning presidential elections with close to 100% of the vote is not a sign of popularity, but of a lack of competition. My question is, if Kagame is so popular, why are his credible challengers barred from running against him in elections? This election result has once again demonstrated that Rwanda still has a long way to go on its path to democracy.
Victoire Ingabire Umuhoza is Rwandan opposition leader, a campaigner for governance reform in Rwanda and leader of the Dalfa Umurinzi party
