The newest ESPN prediction model has the New England Patriots falling off a cliff in the AFC East in 2023.
When doling out FPI rankings, the Patriots came in at fourth place with merely an 8% chance of winning the AFC East division. The Miami Dolphins came in at third place with a 22% percent chance, while the New York Jets (25%) and Buffalo Bills (44%) were second and first, respectively.
These new odds are obviously banking on the Jets being significantly better with quarterback Aaron Rodgers getting more out of the burgeoning young talent than Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco did last season. The Bills are already in a class of their own, and the same argument could be made for the Dolphins, assuming quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is healthy.
Meanwhile, there are nothing but question marks surrounding the Patriots. How will Mac Jones perform in his third year? Do they have enough help at receiver? Will the offensive line improve? How will Bill O’Brien fit in as the new offensive coordinator?
All of those questions, along with having the hardest schedule in the NFL, will be a challenge the likes of which the Patriots haven’t seen in quite some time.
