Tony Gustavsson’s Australia are in Group B along with Canada, Nigeria and the Republic of Ireland. Canada are the only other team in the top 10 of Fifa’s world rankings at seventh, while Ireland are in 22nd spot and Nigeria sit at 40th. The Matildas are ranked 10th, and will have to beat multiple teams ranked higher to reach the final.
It’s been called the “group of death” – lower-ranked Ireland and Nigeria are certainly capable of upsets – but Australia are expected to finish either first or second to move to the round of 16 along with Canada, which presents two speculative paths to the final to explore, both based heavily on Fifa’s current world rankings.
Pathway one: Matildas finish top of Group B
Round of 16 v Denmark
If Australia finish on top of their group, they will play the second-placed team from Group D in the round of 16, which will most likely be Denmark, on 7 August at Stadium Australia in Sydney.
Denmark are ranked 13th and when the Matildas beat them 3-1 in October it was the first time they had defeated a top 20 team in more than a year and the first win against a European side since 2018. It was a turning point for the team and indicated coach Tony Gustavsson’s vision and planning might be starting to come to fruition.
Denmark’s captain and star midfielder, Pernille Harder, was only on the pitch for a short time during that friendly and has since been in great form for her club Chelsea. Like Kerr, Harder is her country’s all-time leading goalscorer, and will be hard to stop during the World Cup.
Quarter-final v France
From here it gets more challenging – with Australia’s potential opponents all ranking higher than them. Assuming fifth-ranked France top Group F ahead of Brazil, and then win their last-16 match, they will face the Matildas in the third quarter-final on 12 August in Brisbane.
Australia were able to get a good look at Hervé Renard’s side when they beat them 1-0 in last week’s send-off game in Melbourne. Facing them in the tournament will be a different matter, but if the Matildas can fine tune a few aspects of their game they would be a chance to beat them again.
If Brazil finish top of Group F and make it through the last 16, Australia can confidently look back to late 2021 when they secured a win and a draw in a two-game friendly series, knowing they are playing significantly better now.
Semi-final v Germany
Australia’s potential semi-final opponent could depend on the outcome of a Euros final rematch between No 2 Germany and No 4 England. Either nation would pose a serious challenge for Australia to progress to the decider but the Matildas have beaten several top teams already this year, including England.
Without captain Leah Williamson, as well as Beth Mead and Fran Kirby, Sarina Wiegman’s England side looks quite different to the one that defeated Germany 2-1 to win Euro 2022.
Germany have announced a strong, mostly unchanged squad but will also miss a key player after Bayern Munich’s Carolin Simon was ruled out with an ACL injury sustained in the team’s shock pre-tournament loss to Zambia.
Final v USA
Barring any major upsets, Sweden, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands and maybe even Japan will probably progress to the knockout stage of the tournament. Of course, the reigning world champions, USA, will be there too, and hungry to be the first nation to lift a third consecutive World Cup trophy at Sydney’s Stadium Australia on 20 August.
Pathway two: Matildas finish second in Group B
Round of 16 v England
Should England top their group and Australia finish second, the two teams would meet in the round of 16. The Matildas may have beaten England just months ago but this match-up would pose a difficult hurdle to overcome straight out of the group stage.
Quarter-finals v Germany
A win against the Lionesses would set up a likely clash with Germany or Brazil in quarter-final.
Semi-final v France
It could be a familiar team waiting for Australia in the semi-final on this path: France or Canada. Australia will have played Olympic gold medallists Canada in the group stage and they know France well from their friendly last week.
Final v USA
With the team the Matildas could potentially face in the final coming from the other side of the draw, things would not change from the first pathway scenario.
