Michigan State is dancing once again in March.
The Spartans are officially heading back to the NCAA Tournament for a 25th straight appearance. Michigan State received a No. 7 seed in the East Region and will face No. 10 USC in the first round on Friday in Columbus, Ohio.
This is the third straight year the Spartans enter the NCAA Tournament with relatively low expectations, but that hasn’t stopped them before from going on a magical run in March. Let’s take a look at the potential path to a Final Four appearance and the chances of it actually happening for Michigan State.
First Round
Opponent: No. 10 USC
Michigan State will open the NCAA Tournament with a battle against a future Big Ten peer, the USC Trojans. The Spartans should enter this game as the favorite and should win this matchup if they get strong guard play and continue to shoot the ball well from outside. I personally like this draw for the Spartans. While nothing is easy in March, this is a game Michigan State fans should expect their team to pickup the victory.
Second Round
Potential Opponents: No. 2 Marquette or No. 15 Vermont
Unless Vermont pulls the rare No. 15 upset over a No. 2, the Spartans will face the Big East regular-season and tournament champions in the second round. Marquette went 0-2 against Big Ten foes this year — losses to Purdue and Wisconsin — but has won 14 of its last 15 games and earned that high seed. Of the No. 2 seeds, this was the best matchup for the Spartans, giving me at least a little confidence Michigan State can reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.
Sweet 16
Potential Opponents: No. 3 Kansas State, No. 6 Kentucky, No. 11 Providence or No. 14 Montana State
Should Michigan State make it past USC and (most likely) Marquette, then anything is possible for the Spartans in the Sweet 16. The opponent for Spartans in a Sweet 16 matchup would be Kansas State, Kentucky or Providence. Each presents different challenges. The thought of Michigan State and Kentucky meeting in the Sweet 16 is very exciting, and would be a fun rematch from their overtime battle earlier this year.
Elite Eight
Potential Opponents: No. 1 Purdue, No. 4 Tennessee, No. 5 Duke, No. 8 Memphis, No. 9 Florida Atlantic, No. 12 Oral Roberts, No. 13 Louisiana, No. 16 Texas Southern or No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson
At this point, Michigan State fans are starting to dream of another Final Four. Reaching the Elite Eight would mean three wins over tough opponents and another tough matchup here. Odds are Purdue, Tennessee or Duke would be waiting for the Spartans. Each would be a tough matchup for Michigan State. But again, when you get this far, it’s not going to be easy.
Chances MSU reaches the Final Four?
Can Michigan State reach another Final Four? Because of its strong guard play, it’s certainly possible, but it’ll be extremely difficult based on their seeding and the route they’d have to go to reach Houston.
Now, how likely is it that the Spartans go on a magical Final Four run? I’ll say 20%. Reaching the Sweet 16 is definitely in play, and I’m honestly more confident about that occurring than I probably should be. But once Michigan State reaches the second weekend, it will have to potentially make it through Kansas State/Kentucky in the Sweet 16 and follow that with a win over Purdue/Duke/Tennessee in the Elite Eight two days later. I don’t have confidence Michigan State has the consistency to beat that many good teams in a row to reach the Final Four, but, hey, it’s March so anything can happen.
Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan state news, notes, and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on Twitter @RobertBondy5.
