The bad news, really for everyone, is that this one is getting played this week instead of a week from Monday in the Championship game.
Whoever wins this one will most likely be installed as a favorite in the title game against Miami. The Hoosiers and Ducks appear to be the two teams playing the best football at the moment, though Oregon’s injury list is concerning.
IU and UO will battle in Atlanta, in a semifinal rematch of a classic that was played between the two teams in Eugene on October 11. That one was a ten-point win for the visitors.
So, what will happen in this one?
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers
Friday, January 9
4:30 PM, PT
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
ESPN: Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Laura Rutledge, and Molly McGrath
Line: Indiana -3.5
Over/Under: 46.5
In the first meeting with Indiana, Oregon allowed six sacks, eight tackles for loss, and 24 pressures. Indiana’s defense overwhelmed the Oregon offensive line in that game.
Indiana consistently won the line of scrimmage. If the Ducks are to reverse the results from the first meeting, they will need to control the line this time.
The problem is that Indiana disguises their blitz packages so well, and oftentimes can get pressure with only four rushers. That was the big issue for UO in the first go-round with the Hoosiers.
Indiana brought defenders from different spots, but was still able to get Dante Moore out of rhythm many times, with just four rushers.
They might bring it from a linebacker or corner, but oftentimes you will see an edge, most likely Mikail Kamara, then fall back into coverage. Essentially, they bring blitzers without sacrificing coverage.
Indiana also does a great job of creating their own rush lanes—and stopping the opponents’ ground attack—by using a tackle to take on two blockers, while another defender stunts into open space.
This is almost similar to screening for a shooter at the top of the key.
I think a big key for the Ducks will be Kenyon Sadiq. In the first meeting, he was limited to just two catches for 21 yards. The big TE could find some space on quick hitters, and this could be a good way to attack the Hoosiers’ front.
This could cause Indiana to alter their look a bit, and the Oregon backs would need to come up big in blocking support.
Oregon’s backs will also need to produce on the ground against the Hoosiers to keep the offense balanced and open things up for Dante Moore in the passing game.
That goal became more challenging with Tuesday’s announcement that Jordon Davison, who has 667 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, is out with an injury. To make matters worse, Noah Whittington was listed as questionable on Thursday.
If Whittington can’t play, that leaves the Ducks with true freshman Dierre Hill Jr., as well as junior Jay Harris, who entered the transfer portal but practiced with Oregon this week and is expected to be available.
Makhi Hughes and Jayden Limar also entered the transfer portal and are no longer with the program.
Against Texas Tech’s vaunted defense last week, the Ducks were only able to muster 64 yards on the ground. The production has to be better in this one. The Red Raiders were first in the nation against the run; Indiana is second, allowing just 73.7 yards per game.
On defense, the Ducks are coming in hot, having shut out Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. They will need to stay hot to contain an explosive Indiana attack that can beat you with the run or the pass.
In particular, the Ducks will need to contain the rushing attack. The Hoosier offense tends to wear out the opposition with its potent ground attack, which runs for 220.7 yards per game.
IU beats up opponents on the ground and counters with an explosive play. This has been especially evident in the second half of games, and was the case in their meeting in Eugene.
Brandon Finney Jr. has emerged as an impact defender this season, and he will need to produce against a talented group of Indiana receivers.
If Oregon can strike early, it will force Indiana to adjust from the power run and could open things up to turnovers.
The game could hinge on a key turnover or a team flipping the field on special teams. But the huge key will be the trenches, where the game will be won or lost.
I think both offenses will perform better than they did October meeting. I also think Oregon is a much better team than they were in October, but Indiana might be as well.
The first time I saw this version of the Indiana football team was in early August in a scrimmage. It is always tough to gauge teams in those situations, but my takeaway was that either the defense is dominant or Fernando Mendoza is not very good.
Well, Mendoza won the Heisman, and it might be in part because the defense he had to go up against in practice makes a lot of QBs look bad, including their own.
Championships are often won with an elite defense and punishing run game. Indiana has both, and should be playing in front of a very pro-IU crowd in Atlanta.
The Hoosiers prevail in a close one.
Winner: Indiana
Against the Spread: Indiana
Points Total: Under
