There’s a gaping hole in British politics, says Tony Blair. And, fresh from being handed a knighthood, he’s keen to fill it.
Fifteen years since leaving No 10, the former prime minister has a fresh fire in his belly about frontline British politics – and is looking to the next election.
To do so, he’s looking to wield his influence on his former party and beyond.
But as Westminster and Fleet Street follow each twist and turn of the Partygate scandal engulfing Boris Johnson’s government, it is not the moral vacuum he wants to address, but the dearth of policies that are fit for the future.
Partygate may have forced a shift in politics – “I think the country is genuinely dismayed” – but in the outcry lie the seeds of something much bigger, and more important. There’s no stopping it for the Tories, or Labour, “whatever happens to Boris Johnson or whatever the outcome of inquiries into the party business”.
“It should be a turning point,” Sir Tony says, leaning forward in his chair as he speaks over Zoom. “Without getting into the wrongs and rights here of what has happened, the thing that’s missing is a plan for the future. And it’s very hard when everything is just sucked into this cycle of political recrimination and argument for that plan to emerge and then be implemented.”
Sir Tony’s argument is that Britain faces huge upheaval from changes in technology and the effects of the climate crisis, but the government is not ready. Put simply, “we don’t have a plan”, he warns. “And if we don’t get our act together, we’re going to get relegated.”
With his policy institute, Sir Tony wants to make sure that someone, wherever they are on the political spectrum, has some ideas to tap.
Indeed, he’s not shy about keeping his finger on the policy pulse of whichever government is in charge, having had quiet conversations with serving Tory cabinet ministers.
“My purpose is to influence the direction of policymaking in the right way, and, especially with the Labour leadership today, there’s a much greater opportunity to get new ideas through and heard,” he says.
But reports suggesting he declared Sir Keir Starmer the true “heir to Blair” last year are a little wide of the mark, he says. Or, at least, it seems there wasn’t a formal ceremony.
“He didn’t need me to anoint him or anything else. Do I support what he’s doing? Yes.”
But the man who led Labour to three general election victories is loath to suggest any influence he may wield over his party could go as far as string-pulling, stressing that he’s sure Sir Keir “speaks to lots of people”.
The opportunity for him – and, he believes, the country – to offer more support to a Labour leader emerged after the last party conference.
“I think the party turned the corner,” he says. “The party had realised that it wanted to support its leadership in moving the party much closer to the centre. I think the far left suffered a major defeat, really.”
It was an especially timely victory, now that polls show Partygate has weakened the Tory party’s standing in the eyes of the public.
Instead of going after its own grassroots to the left, it’s time for Labour to go after centrists voters who had backed Johnson in 2019, Sir Tony says.
“Has politics shifted? Yes. There’s disaffection with the government and there’s interest in Labour. Will that result in a fundamental change in politics, in the government? That depends as much on Labour, but the signs are much better than they’ve been for a long, long time.”
And there’s been another big signal of how the 2019-ers, the twenty- and thirtysomethings both within and outside of Westminster, might be open to fresh ideas at the next general election, the former prime minister believes.
The defection of Christian Wakeford, who crossed the floor of the Commons to join Labour last week has a “bigger significance”.
It shows “that there’s a group of people who maybe backed the Tories for the first time who are having second thoughts”, he says.
This is the target market for Labour now, Sir Tony contends. People who might want to start a family, who fear the future might make them (or even the children they hope to have) less, rather than more, prosperous.
“At the minimum, you’re trying to persuade people who voted for Boris Johnson to vote for you. Right? There’s no point in treating them as if they’re dyed-in-the-wool members of the left because they’re obviously not.”
Instead, these voters, an equivalent to the “Mondeo man” to whom New Labour had to sell its vision, need to believe it is Starmer’s party that can save them.
Sir Tony already has a first draft of the doorstep pitch in mind. A way to show Labour understands the future in a way that the current efforts of the Tories, including levelling up, fail to convey.
“We understand the future and we’re going to make it work for you. Make sure we can get through this climate transition in a way that’s good for you, that doesn’t harm you. Because if you’re in your thirties now you’ll be in your forties soon, and raising a family.
“And we’re going to create a successful economy because we understand the strengths of the country. We understand that technology is changing everything and we’re going to harness it. So, we’re going to make you more prosperous, better off, better paid jobs, because we get the future, and the other side don’t.”
Whether he ends up writing such phrases into speeches for Sir Keir or not, it’s clear that Sir Tony is back in town. And he’s excited about British politics again.
