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data journalist Catherine Hanrahan and Kathleen Calderwood

Parramatta voters hit hard by rental crisis could return key Western Sydney seat to Labor

Antony Green on where the NSW election will be decided

Mohammed Zeitun has seen his rent rise from $610 per week to $750 in the past year.

"It's like 'my way or the highway', that's how it is. And they just wait for you to be behind in rent and that notice comes in right away," he said.

He has lived in Wentworth Point in Western Sydney for the last three years and has seen many families pushed out of their homes because they could not afford the rent.

Wentworth Point resident Mohammed Zeitun says recent rent hikes will influence his vote on Saturday. (ABC News: Kathleen Calderwood)

Nowhere is the plight of renters being squeezed more of an issue than in Mr Zeitun's electorate of Parramatta.

It has the second-highest proportion of renting households in the state, after the inner-city electorate of Sydney.

A report by Everybody's Home, a coalition of housing, homelessness, and welfare organisations, estimates rents in Parramatta have gone up by 30 per cent in the year to February.

The average rent is now about $580.

Parramatta is held by the Liberals on a 6.5 per cent margin, down from 10.6 per cent after the latest boundary changes.

The Parramatta electorate has the second-highest proportion of renting households in the state.  (ABC News: Kathleen Calderwood)

It has been visited more times during this election campaign by Premier Dominic Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns than any other electorate.

Susan Wood lives in an apartment in Wentworth Point with her partner.

She uses a wheelchair, and the area where apartment blocks sprang up after a rezoning in 2013, is more accessible for people with a disability than in older suburbs.

"We looked at 21 houses before we found this apartment. That was six years ago," she said.

"And it took us four-and-a-half months. And I can't think of how terrifying it would be to do that again."

Mr Zeitun said his fears about rent rises would influence his vote in Saturday's state election.

"We need someone to speak. We need someone to act. Because at the moment it is just, there's no rules whatsoever. Everyone's just doing whatever they want."

It took months for Susan Wood to find a suitable apartment and is terrified of losing it. (ABC News: Kathleen Calderwood)

ABC election analyst Antony Green said renters were feeling the hurt of cost of living increases.

"Given Sydney's got a severe rental crisis at the moment, that's a big impact on a seat like Parramatta," he said.

Analysis of census data showed that the higher the proportion of renting households, the higher the two-party preferred Labor vote.

The Parramatta electorate is an outlier, one of only two of the top ten renting electorates that are held by the Liberals.

"The new boundaries have brought in more districts with high-rise development, including areas around Homebush Bay," Mr Green said

He said residents in those areas are also angry about delays in extending the light rail to their suburb, which won't be completed until 2031.

Rhonda Itaoui, chief researcher at the Centre for Western Sydney, grew up in the Parramatta area.

"Growing up, we could never have imagined the development, the scale of that development, but also the amenities," she said.

"The Parramatta area is finally starting to feel like a CBD, and we are finally getting what Western Sydney deserves."

Researcher Rhonda Itaoui says the area's demographic has changed and so have the expectations. (ABC News: Kathleen Calderwood)

She said the electorate has transformed into a younger, more highly-educated population.

"There's a higher interest in politics, but also higher expectations of government.

"And with those higher expectations, local populations are demanding more. They want more livability in the area."

Governments that respond to those needs would succeed in securing votes, according to Professor Itaoui. 

"If we think about this upcoming election, the rising cost of living, energy costs, for example, cost of housing. These will all be front of mind of voters, who really need some reassurance that the rising costs of rent might be you know, might finally come to a stop."

Both major parties have targeted policies at renters.

The government has promised to encourage lease terms of three to five years to give renters more security.

The 2023 NSW election explained.(Ashleigh Raper)

Labor and the Coalition have said they will act to prevent evictions from rental properties that are not on "reasonable grounds".

They have also developed policies to tackle the practice of "rent bidding", where real estate agents encourage potential renters to offer rents above the advertised price.

Mr Green said the retirement of popular local member Geoff Lee would also impact the Liberals' chances.

But he said boundary changes meant the Liberals might have struggled to hold the seat anyway.

"If you look at the results in Parramatta, based on federal election results, then the Labor Party will win Parramatta easily."

Ms Wood said disability issues were never addressed in state elections, and she is anxious about what happens when her lease rolls over in September.

"I'm hoping that they're not going to raise it by such an extraordinary amount that we have to go through this nightmare again."

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