Wout van Aert and a host of other riders completed their final Paris-Roubaix reconnaissance ride under heavy rain and on wet, muddy and very slippery cobbles on Thursday. However, drier, more spring-like weather is forecast for the weekend, with the women’s Paris-Roubaix Femmes avec Zwift on Saturday and the men’s Paris-Roubaix on Sunday expected to be fast races.
The last rain-soaked edition of Paris-Roubaix was in 2021. Lizzie Diegnan attacked early to win the inaugural women’s race on a day of rain showers and only occasionally dry cobbles, while Sonny Colbrelli won the sprint in the Roubaix velodrome with his face and jersey covered in mud after an overnight downpour.
In 2022 both the women’s and the men’s races were held under sunny skies, with the cobbles dry and so very dusty.
We expect a combination of the two weather extremes this year, with Thursday’s rain keeping the dust down but with the cobbles most dry on race day but with sudden wet sections and wet corners too.
The middle ridge section of the cobbles was already dry when some teams did a final reconnaissance ride on Friday afternoon, the damp soil and cobbles actually offering better grip than the wet or bone-dry dusty conditions.
Some rain showers were forecast for Friday night and Saturday morning but these now appear unlikely according to Meteo France, with only a chance of rare showers.
“We’ll most likely get a little bit of everything. I doubt the damp will have all dried up by Sunday, because some sectors were soaking wet on Thursday afternoon,” Oliver Naesen told Het Nieuwsblad.
“However the water can quickly drain between the cobblestones, but I think we will get a wet spot every now and then."
The women are likely to face the more complex conditions and longer sections of wet and muddy cobbles.
After a very cloudy morning, the sun should emerge for the start of the women’s race at 1:45 local time. Temperatures of 12C and some sun are expected to illuminate the finish in the Roubaix velodrome.
A slight wind is forecast at 10km/h from the north and so will be a tailwind on the early part of the race south of Denian and then become a slight headwind and crosswind on the cobbled sectors as the route snakes north to Roubaix.
Wet and dry cobbles
The men face sunnier conditions, with temperatures of 10 centigrade when they roll out of Compiegne at 11:25. The sun will help dry the cobbles on Sunday, with a high of 14 centigrade and sun for the final part of the race.
“I’ve already ridden a wet Roubaix, I didn’t like it,” Van Aert said, unsure of his form after crashing at the Tour of Flanders.
“On wet cobblestones, it’s much more difficult to control the bike. And it’s annoying when you’re in someone’s wheel - mud obscures your view. That means riders leave more distance between each other. That makes the chance of the race falling apart much greater."
The Amis de Paris-Roubaix volunteer association, who do so much to maintain the sectors of cobbles, were out in force on Friday to clean mud off some of the sectors, with a road sweeper even giving them a final scrub up for the big day.
The 5,000 riders taking part in Saturday’s Paris-Roubaix sportif ride will help dry out the cobbles even more, while local goats have helped reduce the growth of grass and moss in the Forest of Arenberg, leaving the cobbles there in perfect condition.
Some wet sections and puddles remain near the edges of the cobbles and the dirt strip that runs along them but riders will probably stay on the cobbles more this year to avoid the puddles and a great risk of crashes and punctures.
The puddles and potholes could create wet sections of cobbles and so heightened the risk of crashes. But this year’s Paris-Roubaix should be about physical ability and bike handling skills rather than luck and survival in the mud and rain.
