Hopes for Irish medals in the ring at Paris 2024 could be scuppered by a shortage of officials - as the IOC fears boxing's fierce civil war could leave them short-handed.
In Tokyo last time out, the International Olympic Council took over the running of the boxing competition following the McClaren report into corruption at the Rio Games.
The IOC only barely scraped together the number of officials required to referee and judge bouts in the Japanese capital, where Kellie Harrington struck gold and Aidan Walsh claimed silver.
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This time around, threats from the International Boxing Association to referees and judges over their futures in the sport if they participate in the Paris Games could have a damaging effect.
"I think we are confident that boxing will be at the Olympics in 2024, which is a massive commitment from the IOC," said Peter Sherrard, the Olympic Federation of Ireland's chief executive.
"The challenge is whether they are going to have the people required to run the tournament.
"Ultimately the IOC oversees the running of the Olympic Games and are not supposed to be running events within the Olympic games, and they thought they would just be doing this for Tokyo.
"But I do think there is a good sense of the duty of care to the athletes."
Olympic Federation of Ireland CEO Peter Sherrard (Image: ©INPHO/Bryan Keane)
The Irish Athletic Boxing Association is a member of the Common Cause Alliance that has been building resistance to the IBA and to its controversial Russian president Umar Kremlev, whose antics have prompted the decision to cut boxing from the Games in Los Angeles in 2028.
The problem for the Common Cause Alliance is that it doesn't have global support - its members include the US and, predominantly, European democracies - and that it doesn't have a driving force to lead a rebellion.
However the IABA and other federations, such as US Boxing, have taken a stand and pulled their boxers out of the women's and men's World championships this year - events earmarked by the IBA as the first Paris 2024 qualifiers.
As a result, there is a strong possibility that the IABA will be re-registered as a national federation by the IBA later in the year, reports the Irish Mirror.
"There's a concern that things will get dirtier and dirtier, particularly if something happens later in the year," said OFI president Sarah Keane.
"One can understand that national federations have a concern that if they go against the current international movement, where is their pathway?
"Ultimately it’s difficult for the IABA - they have to see the bigger, long-term future of boxing and I think they have. That is to be welcomed even though it is a difficult and tough decision."
The whole affair could end up in the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Even if that was to happen, the IBA would be expected to plough ahead on its own track.
"But it enables something to happen if that happens," argued Sherrard. "Or else boxing is just completely out."
Crucially, the OFI insists, it is the upcoming European Championships and not the boycotted Worlds that will provide a gateway to next year's Olympics.
Sherrard stressed: "That’s really important.
"The IBA have said it about the Worlds but it’s parallel universe stuff, Walter Mitty stuff."
And Keane added: "The IBA is not involved in the IOC qualification, it is an IOC qualification pathway.
"That is why it’s been confusing as the IBA came out with their own qualification pathway which doesn’t exist."
Furthermore, Sherrard says that if Irish boxers want to compete as individuals at the Worlds then they are permitted to do so.
Amy Broadhurst and Lisa O'Rourke celebrate with their gold medals at the 2022 Worlds
Amy Broadhurst and Lisa O'Rourke struck gold at the Worlds last year and pocketed $100,000 apiece.
"I don’t think the IOC will hold anything against anybody, even if they were to go to the international tournaments as individuals or federations," he said.
"They were very clear they understood why people would do that, they were clear it won’t make a difference from their perspective.
"From talking to the IABA the tournament they were in recently was an important tournament so they had one to compete in, but the men’s worlds was going to be too close."
The European qualifiers start in three months.
"It’s all moving fast and that is going ahead, but 2028 is the concern," Sherrard commented.
"I don’t think it’s registered in people’s minds that it is not going to be on the programme for 2028."
Medals from Boxing and Rowing delivered three quarters of Ireland's Tokyo haul and account over half of the full total down the years, going back to 1924.
Fintan McCarthy and Paul O’Donovan celebrate winning gold in Tokyo (Image: ©INPHO/Morgan Treacy)
As things stand, Ireland's most successful rower Paul O'Donovan and his lightweight sculls partner Fintan McCarthy believe that France 2024 will mark the end of their remarkable achievements in that category.
Coastal rowing is in line to replace the lightweight rowing category, although at this stage it is still a proposal.
Sherrard said: "Apparently the argument used was that you don’t have light and heavyweight in basketball etc, so why have it in rowing?
"It is a disadvantage to us."
There remains some hope that the event may receive a stay of execution.
Nevertheless, Rowing Ireland are acutely aware of the situation and high performance director Antonio Maurogiovanni has been examining the options for not just O'Donovan and McCarthy, but a number of Ireland's best competitors.
"To be fair, Antonio has been transitioning and looking at different weight classes," said Sherrard.
"They have beach rowing coming in, that’s experimental at the World Beach games we will do this year. They are aware they need to transition to it."
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