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Prediction markets are stuck in a serious regulatory fight. In February, President Donald Trump's administration threw its weight behind Kalshi and Polymarket in a key court battle with states trying to shut these platforms down, with U.S. Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig saying, “We will see you in court.” The numbers show why this fight matters; about 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume now comes from sports bets, and Kalshi alone handled more than $1 billion in volume on this year’s Super Bowl.
Just last week, Utah moved to enact legislation to clamp down on prediction markets, putting it directly at odds with both the federal push and the industry. Kalshi and Polymarket are now valued around $20 billion each after their latest funding rounds. In other words, this fight will help decide who gets to handle the next big wave of sports-betting activity — and the rich data business that comes with it.
