Pakistan’s so-called foreign policy independence or neutrality is going to have severe implications for its allies in Kabul. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shifted the global focus from Afghanistan. As the refugee crisis in Ukraine gets more acute, the Afghan Taliban will face huge challenges in saving Afghanistan from an economic catastrophe, financial bankruptcy and a humanitarian crisis. A Taliban regime in Kabul has multidimensional, and not just strategic, interests tied to relations with Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistani policy in Afghanistan is also determined by the rigidity of the strategic commitment, which makes it virtually impossible for Islamabad to give up its obsession of shaping a new political order across the Durand Line.
Impact of Pakistan’s stance
The Afghan Taliban are now going to be affected by the Pakistani Prime Minister’s diplomatic manoeuvres in the Ukraine minefield. First, this will dampen the Taliban’s chances of getting immediate international recognition as Pakistan’s turn towards Russia seems to have further deepened the distrust between Washington and Islamabad. The Western bloc did not take kindly to Mr. Khan’s visit to Moscow last month, which was only seen as justifying Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine gambit. Triggering an unforeseen chain of events, Mr. Khan’s three-hour-long meeting with Mr. Putin gave the impression that Islamabad was implicitly endorsing Russia’s military action. Clearly, there was little consideration in Islamabad of the diplomatic or strategic implications of this move. The problem of trust deficit between Pakistan and the West can be aggravated further by the rhetoric necessary to mobilise Pakistani public opinion behind any major foreign policy move by Islamabad. The Taliban’s resurgence has also not resulted in the outcome that Pakistan’s military establishment was hoping for, and the delay in getting the Taliban regime recognised internationally will only make Islamabad more frustrated.
