What will it take for the Padres to reach the playoffs?
Ain't happening, you say; so lose the calculator.
Gotcha — but we're talking baseball, the sport that's nuttier than a box of Cracker Jack.
Let's start by noting that in most recent years, about 87 wins are enough to nab the National League's final wild card spot.
At 37-41 going into a six-game trip that begins Tuesday in Pittsburgh, the daffy Padres would need a 50-34 run to reach 87 wins.
Before you say "they're roadkill," there's some club history to consider.
It's been done eight other times.
Yes, ladies and gentlemen: eight ballclubs from a franchise that boasts not a single World Series trophy won 60 percent or more of their games across three months.
The stunner in the group is the 2012 Padres crew that finished 10 games underwater but lived a summer of picnics and ice cream parties in going 50-34 (.595) between June 22 and Sept. 25. Top hitter Chase Headley, serving notice that only suckers gamble on baseball, amassed 22 home runs and 76 RBIs over the 84 games. Lefty Eric Stults pitched like Randy Jones, the Padres winning six of his seven starts.
The franchise's two World Series teams went 54-30 or better, sure. But, so did Padres clubs in 1988, 1989, 1996 and 2010.
So in the words of the "Godfather" hitman Rocco, "difficult but not impossible" describes the task confronting the '23 Padres. And if you've been counting, you know that one other local team lived the joys of 50-34.
Don't feel bad if you can't guess the year, as it was all the way back in … 2021.
Led by several folks whose names you might recognize, the '21 Pads bagged 50 victories between April 22 and July 27. Fernando Tatis Jr. was a tailwind unto himself, knocking 30 home runs and 18 doubles in just 74 games. Manny Machado drove in 63 runs. In the 16 contests started by newcomer Yu Darvish, the team went 11-5.
A future Dodger-slayer named Jake Cronenworth was logging his first full-length season with the Padres. He totaled 12 home runs, 16 doubles and 39 RBIs in the 84 games.
Of course, the number of Padres teams that didn't muster a 50-34 stretch far exceeds eight who did.
If the 2023 Padres are to do it, it'll take their hitters solving problems — a baseball season is an endless, ever-changing series of exams — while the pitchers and defense continue to maintain something like the current NL-best run prevention.
Juan Soto inspires some hope.
He showed how hitting adjustments can foster big gains within a season.
Can Cronenworth do the same?
By regaining his knack of staying on pitches and driving balls to the opposite field, Soto has batted .316 with 16 doubles and nine home runs since May 1, a 69-game stretch that shows more walks (44) than strikeouts (40).
Cronenworth stayed on pitches well in 2021 but saw his hitting form wane last year while he fought a reported hip injury yet still managed to put up fairly good statistics.
Of some concern, the lefty placed in MLB's bottom quarter in average exit velocity and bottom fifth in hard contact percentage.
Perhaps believing health was a factor, Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller and Chairman Peter Seidler issued the 29-year-old infielder a seven-year, $80-million extension that kicks in next year.
Searching for his best form, Cronenworth sports a good walk rate but shows a .210 batting average with seven home runs and 10 doubles.
Having seen his aforementioned hard-contact skills plunge further in MLB rankings, he has recorded a .663 on-base-plus-slugging percentage that's 90 points off his career mark. His adjusted OPS stands 14 points below the league average.
Cronenworth is far from the only active Padres hitter whose adjusted OPS sits below 90, but the others are reserves or platoon players: catcher Austin Nola (67 points), DH-first baseman Matt Carpenter (21 points) and first baseman-outfielder Brandon Dixon (27 points).
However, Croneworth is a mainstay who has started all but two games. He trails only Soto for the club lead in plate appearances. With runners in scoring position, only Xander Bogaerts has more chances than Cronenworth, whose batting average (.164) and slug rate (.239) in that category ranks last among the team's regulars.
As the main No. 5 hitter and a first baseman, better-than-average hitting is expected.
The Padres have seen Ha-Seong Kim improve at squaring up hotter fastballs, such as the 97-mph pitch he launched into the left-field seats Sunday.
To win often, they probably need Bogaerts and Cronenworth to regain their better form of other years.
If Cronenworth can rediscover his 2021 self that batted .266 with 21 home runs and an .800 OPS, the Padres will have seen three regulars solve difficult problems during this journey.
What Preller would rather not see is more struggles at a first-base position where Eric Hosmer underperformed his $144-million contract, and where Josh Bell cratered after the Soto blockbuster installed him as Hosmer's replacement last August.
