Padres President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller and his staff are here to find out what is possible.
As always, the answer is that viability knows no bounds with Preller. But this offseason does present a somewhat different experiment.
In the unique and unfamiliar spot of having already taken their payroll to a relatively staggering height and having achieved a level of success by making it to and advancing in the postseason, the Padres now must figure out a way to maintain and improve at both levels.
Conversations with multiple people who have at least some level of familiarity with the Padres' preliminary plans suggest the team's biggest task this offseason is figuring out how to fit a quality starting pitcher (or two) onto the roster without significantly increasing the payroll.
The organization has shown a willingness to stretch the budget when necessary.
But Padres Chairman Peter Seidler and the team's other investors are not Mets owner Steve Cohen, whose net worth of some $17 billion allows him to award closer Edwin Diaz $20.4 million a year as his team builds toward a $300 million payroll.
The likelihood is the Padres' financial commitment to players in 2023 will be around what it was in 2022, perhaps slightly higher but not substantially so.
At the outset of the offseason, that means they have about $25 million to spend as they seek to strengthen their starting rotation and fill holes at first base and left field.
Even if that commitment is bumped up another $10 million for '23, whatever additions they make will almost certainly entail commitments for future seasons, when Fernando Tatis Jr.'s contract rises into eight figures ($11 million in 2024 and $20 million-plus after that). And while it cannot be absolutely stated that one move precludes another — especially when Preller is devising the schemes and Seidler is authorizing the checks — a significant multiyear commitment could have ramifications regarding the feasibility of fitting a long-term contract for Juan Soto into budgets for future seasons.
The Padres, whose payroll last season ranked sixth in the major leagues, were one of two teams (along with the Phillies) to pay four players $20 million or more in '22. The Dodgers also had four such players, but one was the suspended Trevor Bauer and another was David Price, whose $32 million base salary was split between them and the Red Sox.
Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, who both made $20 million in '22, are off the books, at least to some degree (the Padres will also pay almost $12.3 million of Hosmer's salary with the Red Sox). That leaves the Padres with Manny Machado ($30 million), Joe Musgrove ($20 million) and Soto (projected to command about $21 million in his second year of arbitration eligibility) as their $20 million-plus earners. Yu Darvish is scheduled to make $19 million (down from $20 million). Three others will make (or are projected to make) between $10 million and $16 million.
Figuring in projected arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries, Fangraphs pegs the Padres' 2023 payroll at approximately $192 million, which is $22 million below last season's final mark. However, that number includes a projected $3.6 million for catcher Jorge Alfaro, who won't be a Padre in '23.
The Padres are said, both internally and by others around the league, to be seeking starting pitching above all else.
This starting pitcher market might be just right, then, for the Padres, who already have a presumptive top three in Darvish, Musgrove and Blake Snell. There are numerous mid-rotation options, including Japanese star Kodai Senga, in whom the Padres and virtually every other MLB team is interested.
There are numerous people, both inside and outside the organization, who believe Preller will bring back left fielder Jurickson Profar. But Profar begins his free agency with talk that he could realize something between a 75 to 100 percent raise (above the $8.33 million option he declined) in a relatively light outfield market.
The Padres need a first baseman, and while they are expected to pursue some free agent options, the internal talk so far suggests a platoon there and in left field is possible.
The estimated $25 million or so that is available would hardly seem to be enough money to get more than a pitcher to place in the middle of the rotation and some sorely needed spare parts without what one source called "creativity" in roster building.
That is the real challenge this offseason.
