The San Francisco 49ers ran all over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, which is not something Green Bay Packers fans want to hear ahead of a 2019 NFC Championship Game rematch awaiting on Saturday.
Kyle Shanahan’s scheme was nearly perfect against the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round of the 2021 playoffs. For most of the game, it was poetry in motion as misdirection and heavy personnel created open receivers for Jimmy Garoppolo and large rushing lanes for their running backs. Elijah Mitchell (96) and Deebo Samuel (72) combined for 168 of San Francisco’s 169 rushing yards, and both rushed for a touchdown.
The Packers experienced Shanahan’s ground attack like no one before when the 49ers rushed for 326 yards to reach the Super Bowl only two seasons ago. It was a defeat that will linger over the heads of Green Bay players and coaches for the rest of the week.
Luckily, the Packers’ defense has taken on a new look since that embarrassing loss. The defense is now led by a speedy and instinctive inside linebacker in De’Vondre Campbell, who was named to his first All-Pro team in 2021. Campbell hasn’t done it all alone, but he is a major reason why the run defense finished tied for 10th in the league. Back in 2019, under defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, Green Bay’s run defense ranked 23rd.
However, new personnel and a coaching change do not mean the Packers have fixed all their problems against the run. In fact, their run defense DVOA is the exact same as it was two years ago, according to Football Outsiders.
Football Outsiders’ shortened definition of DVOA includes measuring a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Essentially, Football Outsiders peels back the layer of general statistics to take into account league-wide data to determine a team’s performance. That includes down and distance and the quality of the opponent.
It is a big reason some people believe viewing teams the scope of total offense and total defense is an archaic approach.
The Packers did a good job of shutting down the 49ers’ run game back in Week 3, which should give fans hope about avoiding a repeat performance. However, San Francisco’s rushing attack looks a lot different than it did earlier in the season.
Mitchell is a promising rookie who rushed for 963 yards and averaged 4.7 yards per carry in 2021. A shoulder injury kept him out of the first matchup against Green Bay. Then, there is Samuel, the All-Pro. Shanahan has tapped deep into Samuel’s potential, revealing his prowess as a ball carrier on top of his dynamic ability as a wide receiver. Samuel carried the ball only two times against the Packers in September – expect that to change this time around. He’s rushed for a touchdown in the eight of the team’s last 10 games.
Of course, all hope is not lost for Green Bay. Unlike the 49ers, the Packers will be much fresher coming off a week’s rest, and a strong game plan would do wonders. They could also return two key players on defensive in Jaire Alexander (who did play in the first matchup) and Za’Darius Smith.
However, fans who think this run defense has turned over a new leaf ahead of this rematch may want to think again. Getting back to the NFC title game might ride on avoiding anything that looks like a repeat of Jan. 2020.
