Which team will have the winning advantage when the Green Bay Packers (2-2) go to Las Vegas to play the Raiders (1-3) on Monday night?
Football is a complicated game, but finding the reasons for winning individual matchups between teams each week is often a straightforward exercise. What wins games? Excellent quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, taking care of the football and taking it away, controlling the important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of the injury situation.
Buy Packers TicketsOur weekly game preview went deep into the Packers-Raiders matchup to determine who has the advantage at the key factors for winning football games in the NFL.
Quarterback play
It’s unclear who will start at quarterback for the Raiders. Jimmy Garoppolo missed last week with a concussion and remains in the concussion protocol as of Thursday. If he can’t go, it’ll be rookie Aidan O’Connell making another start. Even if Garoppolo plays, he’s a “who knows what you’re going to get” type of quarterback, especially in this Raiders scheme. While Jordan Love has thrown eight touchdown passes and flashed big-time ability at times, he’s also been inconsistent and inaccurate, and issues playing under pressure popped up last week against the Lions. Raiders quarterbacks have nine turnovers this season and the NFL’s 26th-best passer rating through four games, so it wouldn’t be unfair to say the Packers are going into this game with a slight advantage at the game’s most important position. But at this point, Love is working through too many issues early in his starting career to believe the Packers can count on an advantage at quarterback during any given week.
Advantage: Push
Line of scrimmage
The Packers are beat up across the offensive line and haven’t gotten enough production outside of Rashan Gary along the defensive front, but the advantage here looks clear. Outside of last week, the Packers have protected Jordan Love well, and the potential return of Elgton Jenkins would only improve the outlook in the passing game. In terms of rushing the passer: the Packers defense ranks eighth in pressure rate, while the Raiders sit at 30th. Neither team has run-blocked well and both teams rank near the bottom of the NFL in yards per carry. Last week, the Raiders allowed rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell to be sacked seven times, including six times by Khalil Mack. Up next for the Raiders right tackle? Rashan Gary. Do the Raiders have anyone other than Maxx Crosby up front? The Packers need to keep Crosby from wrecking the game like Aidan Hutchinson last week.
Advantage: Packers
Turnovers
Not much to unpack here. The Raiders offense has turned the ball over 10 times, including an NFL-high seven interceptions thrown, while the Raiders defense has just a single takeaway (an interception last week). Las Vegas is a league-worst minus-9 in turnover differential so far this season. The Packers have turned the ball over three times in the last two games (all Jordan Love interceptions) and have just four total takeaways, but it’s clear who is doing a better job of “winning the ball” this season. Love’s erratic accuracy and decision-making under pressure could even this out, but Jimmy Garoppolo threw an interception in three straight games to start the season and rookie Aidan O’Connell turned the ball over three times in his first NFL start last week. Given the matchups up front and the frequency in which Raiders quarterbacks are putting the ball in trouble, the Packers should feel good about getting at least one takeaway this week. Keeping Maxx Crosby blocked (or contained) will give Love the best chance of avoiding a giveaway.
Advantage: Packers
Situational
The stats tell a convincing story. The Packers offense ranks 11th on third down (first downs on 42.6% of third downs) and fourth in the red zone (touchdowns on 69.2% of red zone trips), while the defense ranks 10th on third down (33.9%) and 12th in the red zone (46.7%). The Raiders offense ranks 30th on third down (31.0%) and 24th in the red zone (46.2%), while the defense ranks 23rd on third down (43.4%) and 28th in the red zone (73.3%). If there’s an advantage here for the Raiders, it’s on fourth down when they have the ball: The Packers have given up seven fourth-down conversions already, and the Raiders are 5-of-6 (83%) on fourth down this season. In terms of matchups, the Packers must contain Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby in the big situational moments on Monday night. The Packers offense must find a way to sustain drives at a higher frequency, especially early; the quick three-and-outs have created too many slow starts.
Advantage: Packers
Injury situation
This will become clearer as the week progresses. The Packers won’t have left tackle David Bakhtiari or linebacker De’Vondre Campbell on Monday, and key starters such as cornerback Jaire Alexander, left guard Elgton Jenkins, right guard Jon Runyan Jr and safety Rudy Ford are working through injuries, while receiver Christian Watson and running back Aaron Jones have only recently returned from injuries. The Raiders have a big question mark at quarterback and injuries in the secondary (Nate Hobbs, Jakorian Bennett, David Long), and Davante Adams is dealing with a shoulder injury. Overall, the Packers listed 10 players as limited or did not participate on Thursday, so the Raiders get a slight advantage until playing time designations are made Saturday.
Advantage: Raiders
Verdict: Advantage Packers
Four games create a small sample, but the Packers have looked like the team with better quarterback play and better play at the line of scrimmage, and they’ve been better at protecting/taking away the ball and winning in the game’s biggest situations so far in 2023. Matt LaFleur’s team is young and erratic overall, so really any game script is possible. But the Packers should enter Week 5 in a position to protect Jordan Love, control the game at the line of scrimmage and win the turnover battle against a reeling Raiders team that has lost three straight games and looks, at least statistically speaking, like one of the NFL’s worst teams. The Packers still need to start fast and avoid penalties and long lulls in execution. The Raiders aren’t good, but this Packers team needs to play well to beat just about anyone in 2023.
