The Green Bay Packers (2-1) and Detroit Lions (2-1) will do battle on Thursday night at Lambeau Field for early supremacy in the NFC North. The winner to open Week 4 in the NFL will grab a big win in the division and take over first place in the NFC North.
The Packers are looking to snap a three-game losing streak to the Lions. Both teams won last week: the Packers over the Saints in dramatic fashion, the Lions over the Falcons in dominant fashion.
Buy Packers TicketsHere are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 4:
Can the Packers finally start fast?
Being at home on a short week can be a real advantage, and it often becomes amplified with a fast start. But strong starts have been elusive for Jordan Love and the Packers so far in 2023. Consider this: the Packers have scored 10 total touchdowns this season, and eight have come in the second half. Love is completing just 47.7 percent of his passes with a 78.2 passer rating in the first half; his numbers jump to 57.7 percent and 108.7 in the second half. Can Matt LaFleur find ways to get Love settled into the game quicker against a good Lions defense on Thursday night? To his credit, LaFleur has done well adjusting midgame and getting the passing game on track in the second half. But starting fast and playing with the lead will be crucial on Thursday night.
Primetime rookie matchup
Two standout second-round picks will be one-on-one for most of Thursday night. Jayden Reed, the 50th overall pick, leads all rookie receivers in slot targets (12) this season, while Brian Branch, the 45th overall pick, leads all rookie defensive backs in stops and is second in coverage grade at PFF. Reed produced a catch of 30 yards in Week 1 and Week 3 and had two scores in Week 2. He looks like a top target for Jordan Love. Branch has already scored two defensive touchdowns, and he was an absolute menace against the Falcons last week. Another connection: the Packers traded down with the Lions so Detroit could move up to get Branch at No. 45 overall in April. Five picks later, and after another trade down, Brian Gutekunst took Reed. Later, he took Dontayvion Wicks with the pick acquired from Detroit in the trade down.
Turnover tale
Last season, the Packers lost the turnover battle 5-to-1 and were swept by the Lions. This season, the Packers have exactly one giveaway through three games, while the Lions still haven’t won the turnover battle in a game. During Detroit’s only loss, the Lions turned the ball over three times, including an interception returned for a touchdown. Long story short: the Packers need to continue protecting the football and avoiding the turnovers that so drastically change games, and it would sure help the cause to force Jared Goff into a bad decision or two. There’s a strong correlation between offensive line play and taking care of the ball, so winning the pressure/protection battle — or consistently pressuring Goff while protecting Jordan Love — is vital. The Lions will provide a terrific test at the line of scrimmage.
Rookie tight ends
Detroit’s Sam LaPorta and Green Bay’s Luke Musgrave rank first and second, respectively, in both catches and receiving yards among rookie tight ends through three weeks. LaPorta has 18 catches for 186 yards, including a 45-yard touchdown last week. Musgrave has 11 catches for 124 yards and probably should have a bunch more if not for a few misfires or misconnections. Which tight end will have more impact on Thursday night? Here’s one thing to know: the Lions have given up an NFL-high 25 catches for 263 yards to tight ends this season. Musgrave could have a breakout game opportunity.
Blocking Aidan Hutchinson
The Packers are prepping for Aidan Hutchinson, the NFC’s Defensive Player of the Week last week, while dealing with an uncertain offensive tackle situation. David Bakhtiari is out, leaving Rasheed Walker to start at left tackle for the third straight game. Zach Tom is questionable after injuring his knee late vs. the Saints. If he can’t go, the Packers would start Yosh Nijman on the right side. The depth at offensive tackle will be tested by Hutchinson, who is first in the NFL with 19 total pressures entering Week 4. While Hutchinson might be Detroit’s only game-wrecking pass-rusher, keeping him away from Jordan Love will be a big challenge for Walker and either Tom or Nijman on Thursday night.
Prediction: Lions 24, Packers 20 (2-1)
The Lions will challenge the Packers in big and important ways. On offense, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs are legitimate playmakers who can stress areas of weakness (slot coverage, run defense), and the Lions offensive line may negate the Packers’ biggest strength (pass-rushing). On defense, the Lions have a game-wrecking pass-rusher (Aidan Hutchinson), a strong run-defending front (allowing 3.2 yards per carry) and an emerging do-everything defender (Brian Branch). The Packers should get back Aaron Jones and Christian Watson, and having the full arsenal of weapons around Jordan Love gives the Packers a real chance to turn this into a shootout of sorts, but I think the Lions will end up being too physical at the line of scrimmage for the young Packers. Considering six of the last eight games between these two teams have been one-score games, I’ll go with the Lions…by four.
