Sunday is a great day for a football game between two iconic NFL franchises in London, innit?
The Green Bay Packers (3-1) and New York Giants (3-1) will do battle on the pitch at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London on Sunday morning. Four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers said it would be a game – and experience – he would remember forever in his career.
Can Matt LaFleur’s team make it a favorable memory by escaping the United Kingdom with a big win during the franchise’s first appearance in the NFL’s International Series?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Packers-Giants in Week 5:
Stopping Saquon
Barkley, the NFL’s leader in rushing yards, will provide a big challenge for the Packers’ inconsistent and occasionally porous run defense. Green Bay is giving up 5.0 yards per carry and ranks 30th in run defense grade at PFF; Barkley has forced 16 missed tackles and created 10 runs of 10 or more yards and eight of 15 or more (NFL high).
If the Giants want to pull off the upset, Barkley has to be a difference-maker.
Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry on Barkley: “Phenomenal player, phenomenal talent. He’s got all the tools, he’s explosive, he’s big, they do a great job throwing him the ball…he’s just an all-around complete back. It has to be a collective group effort this week because you can’t tackle that guy with one person. It has to be population to the ball. Unbelievable player, unbelievable talent.”
Big test for Rashan Gary (and Preston Smith)
There are few things better in the NFL game than when elite players face elite players. On Sunday, Packers outside linebacker Rashan Gary will get a chance to go head-to-head with Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas. Both recent first-round picks are among the best young players at their respective positions. Gary has 5.0 sacks and 16 total pressures, while Thomas is the highest-graded offensive tackle at PFF. This is a battle of elite athletes and ascending superstars at premium positions. Veteran Preston Smith will pass-rush attempts against Thomas, too. The rest of the Giants offensive line looks shaky, so if Gary and Smith are winning against Thomas, the whole house of cards will probably fall in spectacular fashion.
Packers OL vs. a bunch of first-rounders
The Packers offensive line will be tested by a defensive front featuring three first-round picks: Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Lawrence is having a breakout season as a pass-rusher, Williams is one of the NFL’s best run-stopping down linemen, and Thibodeaux brings some much-needed juice to the edge-rusher group. The interior of the Packers offensive line will be challenged to stay on blocks, especially in the run game. Now that the starting five along the offensive line is (mostly) settled, it’s time to start seeing gradual improvement, especially for the offensive tackles.
Situational offense
The Packers have been a dominant defense on third down (first) and keeping teams out of the red zone (only eight total trips), but the Giants aren’t far behind situationally. Wink Martindale’s group ranks second on third down and in the red zone (in terms of touchdown percentage). The Packers offense needs to play well on early downs and get into manageable third downs and then get creative once reaching the condensed area inside the 20-yard line. Don’t be surprised if there are some lulls again in terms of extending drives, and Mason Crosby could be an active contributor if the red-zone offense isn’t good enough. The better situational offense on Sunday is going to create a huge advantage.
How to beat Daniel Jones
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has been successful in the play-action passing game and as a runner through the first four games of the 2022 season. He’s been inefficient and far less successful when having to play a drop-back passing game. The idea here is fairly straightforward: If the Packers can contain the run and get the Giants into some uncomfortable passing situations, Joe Barry’s group is going to feast. New York is really struggling on third down, largely because the pass protection hasn’t been good and Jones has struggled on obvious passing downs. A frenzy of pressures from the Packers front is possible if the Giants are consistently playing behind the sticks on Sunday morning.
Prediction: Packers 24, Giants 16 (2-2)
The Giants are an underwhelming 3-1 football team, but Brian Daboll’s squad has the type of running game and defensive front necessary to make this a tough, hard-fought contest, especially given the unusual circumstances of playing overseas in London after a weird week of prep. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants drew first blood and kept it interesting for 60 minutes, but this is a game the Packers should absolutely win. They are more talented on both sides of the ball and have a huge advantage at quarterback. As long as Saquon Barkley doesn’t go crazy and the Packers run the ball effectively and safeguard against turnovers, Matt LaFleur’s team should return to the US at 4-1. As will likely be the case for much of the season, don’t expect a “pretty” win.
