The Green Bay Packers (9-8) are going on the road to play the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) in the NFC Wild Card Round on Sunday at AT&T Stadium. At most sportsbooks, the seventh-seeded Packers are touchdown underdogs.
Football is a complicated game, but finding the reasons for winning individual matchups between teams each week is often a straightforward exercise. What wins games? Excellent quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, taking care of the football and taking it away, controlling the important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of the injury situation.
We’ve already looked at the quarterback battle, the line of scrimmage and turnovers/situational matchups. And the Cowboys are the healthier team, a fact that will become obvious when Friday’s final injury report arrives. So, let’s look at one final area of importance: special teams.
Here are some relevant numbers:
| Packers | Cowboys | |
| FG% | 81.8 (24th) | 94.7 (2nd) |
| PAT% | 87.2 (30th) | 94.2 (21st) |
| ST penalties | 19 (32nd) | 17 (29th) |
| Kick return average | 25.3 (5th) | 21.8 (21st) |
| Punt return average | 7.3 (29th) | 5.4 (32nd) |
| Kickoff coverage | 23.8 (20th) | 24.8 (24th) |
| Punt coverage | 11.7 (26th) | 10.3 (21st) |
| Punting average | 46.2 (24th) | 51.4 (1st) |
| Net punting average | 39.4 (28th) | 45.3 (1st) |
| Punts inside 20% | 31.6 (25th) | 38.6 (13th) |
| Kickoff touchback% | 43.0 (32nd) | 90.8 (1st) |
| Blocked kicks | 1 (12th) | 3 (1st) |
| Giveaways | 2 (20th) | 0 (1st) |
| Starting field position | 29.8 (8th) | 28.9 (14th) |
| Opp. starting field position | 27.7 (9th) | 27.3 (7th) |
| Special teams TDs allowed | 1 (23rd) | 0 (1st) |
| PFF ST grade | 67.9 (26th) | 83.1 (13th) |
| ST DVOA | -3.2 (31st) | 1.6 (10th) |
| Gosselin rank | 29th | 12th |
The Packers know all too well how important special teams can be to the final outcome of a postseason game. In games with razor thin margins, one mistake on special teams can swing a game.
On Sunday, the Packers will have to overcome another poor season overall on special teams and avoid making a game-changing mistake in the third phase to win a game as the road underdog in Dallas.
The Cowboys will go into the showdown Sunday enjoying massive advantages in terms of kicking and punting. Both teams were heavily penalized on special teams and neither was particularly dominant in the return game during the 2023 season, although both teams have an explosive returner.
Cowboys rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey produced what could be an All-Pro season. Packers rookie kicker Anders Carlson endured ups and downs and missed an NFL-high five extra points. It’s worth noting, however, that Aubrey missed a pair of field goals under 40 yards — his first two misses of the season — in the finale against the Commanders. He also missed three extra points. Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal vs. the Bears, and he had missed extra points indoors against the Vikings and Lions over the final eight games. Kicking could be an adventure for at least one team on Sunday.
Aubrey has a big leg and produces touchbacks at a league-high rate, likely limiting the kickoff return potential of Keisean Nixon, the Packers’ best special teams weapon.
Also, Aubrey was a perfect 10-for-10 on field goals of 50 or more yards, including a 60-yarder. He drastically expands the Cowboys’ realistic scoring area. Carlson was 3-for-5 on kicks over 50 with a long of 53.
Cowboys punter Bryan Anger was a Pro Bowler after leading the NFL in yards per punt and net punting average. He is a premier field-flipping punter. Daniel Whelan finished 20th or lower in punting average, net punting average and percentage of punts inside the 20.
The Packers muffed five punts, and both Nixon and Samori Toure lost fumbles returning punts. The Cowboys had zero muffs and zero turnovers in the return game.
KaVonte Turpin, a Pro Bowl returner for the Cowboys last year, averaged 29.2 yards per kickoff return in 2023. He managed only 79 punt return yards this season, but he was arguably the most dangerous punt return in football last season. Can Carlson consistently provide touchbacks on kicks, and can Daniel Whelan keep his coverage teams out of harm’s way? Turpin, like Nixon, has game-breaking potential.
The Packers must also protect against blocks. The Cowboys special teams blocked two punts (NFL high) and a kick.
Both teams missed 12 tackles on special teams during the regular season.
The Cowboys have Pro Bowlers at punter and kicker, and their top returner was a Pro Bowler last year. Special teams coordinator John Fassel is one of the best in the NFL. The Packers finished 29th in Rick Gosselin’s annual special teams rankings after another disappointing year in the third phase. A big edge on special teams goes to Dallas entering Sunday.
