The Green Bay Packers (9-8) are going on the road to play the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) in the NFC Wild Card Round on Sunday at AT&T Stadium. At most sportsbooks, the seventh-seeded Packers are touchdown underdogs.
Football is a complicated game, but finding the reasons for winning individual matchups between teams each week is often a straightforward exercise. What wins games? Excellent quarterback play, winning the line of scrimmage, taking care of the football and taking it away, controlling the important situations and overcoming or taking advantage of the injury situation.
So, who has the edge along the line of scrimmage entering Sunday’s showdown?
Let’s take a look at some important numbers on both sides:
Packers offense vs. Cowboys defense
| GB offense | DAL defense | ||
| Yards per carry | 4.3 (12th) | Yards per carry | 4.2 (18th) |
| PFF run-block grade | 56.2 (22nd) | PFF run defense grade | 70.9 (8th) |
| Run block win rate | 71% (16th) | Run stop win rate | 29% (27th) |
| Run success rate | 41.5% (7th) | Run success rate | 44.0% (32nd) |
| Sacks allowed | 30 (3rd) | Sacks | 46 (13th) |
| Sack percentage | 4.9 (3rd) | Sack percentage | 8.3 (7th) |
| PFF pass block grade | 71.6 (6th) | PFF pass rush grade | 91.0 (2nd) |
| Pass block win rate | 69% (2nd) | Pass rush win rate | 59% (1st) |
Packers defense vs. Cowboys offense
| GB defense | DAL offense | ||
| Yards per carry | 4.4 (22nd) | Yards per carry | 4.2 (18th) |
| PFF run defense grade | 62.5 (18th) | PFF run block grade | 63.7 (11th) |
| Run stop win rate | 31% (17th) | Run block win rate | 72% (4th) |
| Run success rate | 40.0% (15th) | Run success rate | 41.3% (9th) |
| Sacks | 45 (16th) | Sacks allowed | 46 (13th) |
| Sack percentage | 7.9 (9th) | Sack percentage | 6.1 (8th) |
| PFF pass rush grade | 77.7 (13th) | PFF pass block grade | 67.7 (14th) |
| Pass rush win rate | 40% (19th) | Pass block win rate | 58% (16th) |
The numbers help illuminate the questions the Packers need to answer along the line of scrimmage.
On offense, can the Packers offensive line take advantage of the Cowboys’ issues stopping the run and keep Micah Parsons and the rest of the Cowboys’ excellent pass-rushing group from taking over the game? On defense, neither the Packers front nor the Cowboys offensive line can be considered elite, so can the Packers get a dominant effort at the line of scrimmage to survive against Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys dynamic passing game?
The Packers’ improvement in terms of running the ball over the final month of the season has roots in better blocking up front and the return of the always explosive Aaron Jones. In the 2022 meeting between these two teams, the Packers committed to the run early and got 138 rushing yards from Jones, another 65 from A.J. Dillon and 207 rushing yards total. The wins up front in the run game helped blunt Parsons’ impact on the game. A similar strategy will likely be needed to protect second-year offensive tackles Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker and the Packers’ inconsistent interior offensive line from getting bulldozed in obvious passing situations on Sunday.
The Cowboys offensive line features two decorated veterans (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin), one of the game’s best young guards (Tyler Smith) and a veteran center who has played 1,000 or more snaps in three straight seasons (Tyler Biadasz). The weak point is likely right tackle Terence Steele, who has allowed the third-most pressures (54) among NFL offensive tackles this season. On critical downs, the Packers front must win one-on-one opportunities and get help in the blitz plan from Joe Barry, who has dialed up more five-man pressures in recent weeks. Edge rusher Rashan Gary, who primarily lines up against the right tackle, must dominate. Veteran defensive lineman Kenny Clark has been great down the stretch, and rookie Karl Brooks is making a big play in almost every Packers win.
Who is the better team at the line scrimmage entering Sunday? It’s difficult to pick against the Cowboys, who have one of the NFL’s best pass-rushing fronts and an experienced, cohesive offensive line. The Packers have something real brewing in the run game, however, and the defensive front has taken over several of the team’s biggest wins down the stretch.
Here’s some thoughts from Brandon Thorn of Establish the Run on the line of scrimmage battles between the Packers and Cowboys:
Keep this in mind: The Cowboys defensive front vs. the Packers offensive line is Thorn’s No. 1 “mismatch” of the wildcard round.
“Really stems from the tackles anytime they are isolated against Parsons…and to a lesser extent Lawrence. I don’t see those situations going well on true drop-back passes,” Thorn said.
“Thankfully, Green Bay’s offense is very well-schemed, balanced and heavy play-action oriented so as long as the game script is favorable it shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but in high-leverage situations and especially if they are playing from behind for any meaningful stretch I can see things breaking down quickly from a pass-protection perspective.”
“From an individual matchup perspective, Lawrence/Parsons reduced inside over the RG + both of them 1v1 against either tackle with more of a concern vs the LT. Odighiwuza vs Myers is another concern.”
It’s clear the Packers will need to play their best game of the season along the line of scrimmage — likely on both sides — to beat the Cowboys. Winning in the run game, avoiding obvious passing situations and disrupting Dak Prescott in the pocket are all important winning keys for the Packers in the NFC Wild Card Round.
