Losses to the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in back-to-back weeks have left the playoff hopes of the Green Bay Packers severely damaged, but Matt LaFleur’s team isn’t cooked yet. In fact, a few reasonable paths to the postseason still exist if the Packers can get it turned around over the final three weeks.
First, the schedule ahead: the Packers will play the Carolina Panthers (2-12) on the road in Week 16, the Minnesota Vikings (7-7) on the road in Week 17 and the Chicago Bears (5-9) at home in Week 18 to finish the 2023 season.
So, what are the playoff paths available to the 6-8 Packers?
The obvious one first: winning out — and getting to 9-8 — almost guarantees the Packers will be a playoff team. Their postseason odds in this scenario, via the New York Times simulator, would get close to 99 percent. If the Packers win out and either the Rams or Vikings lose just one other game, Green Bay is a lock. Go 1-0 each of the next three weeks, as coaches love to say, and the Packers are almost certainly in.
The second one isn’t quite as straightforward but still gives the Packers a chance of making it: winning two of three, with one of the two wins coming over the Vikings. Based on the simulator, if the Packers beat the Panthers and Vikings but lose to the Bears, their odds would hover around 40 percent. If the Packers lost to the Panthers but beat the Vikings and Bears, their chances would sit at a little over 50 percent. Again, nothing is guaranteed in this scenario, and the Packers would need help to get in at 8-9. But we’re talking about a coin flip chance if the Packers beat the Vikings and either the Panthers or Bears.
Beating only the Panthers and Bears and losing to the Vikings isn’t really worth considering given how low the odds (15-ish percent) would be of making the postseason in that scenario.
The Packers, despite losing two straight games, still hold some control. Can LaFleur’s volatile team string together another three-game win streak and punch its ticket to the postseason? The Packers revived their season by beating the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs over three straight games, so another win streak isn’t impossible, especially given the opponents ahead. The Panthers have two wins and a struggling offense, the Vikings are on their fourth starting quarterback, and the Bears are the Bears, but then again, the Packers can lose to anyone when they don’t play well in one or more phases.
Things look and feel dire in Green Bay, and for good reason. Losses to Tommy DeVito in primetime and Baker Mayfield at Lambeau Field will suck the life out of any season. But the Packers once looked dead at 3-6 and they managed to come together and beat a few good football teams in big spots to keep these playoff scenarios alive. Can Green Bay do it again?
