Comparing Jordan Love’s passing numbers when targeting rookies Luke Musgrave, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to his numbers when targeting second-year receivers Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure paints a clear picture entering Week 11: the Green Bay Packers’ first-year pass-catchers are shining in Year 1, while Love must somehow find a way to get on the same page with receivers he spent all of last season with in Green Bay.
First, the incredible splits:
Jordan Love when targeting Musgrave, Reed, Wicks in 2023
111 targets
74 catches
66.7 percent
970 yards
8.7 per attempt
13.1 per completion
6 TD passes
1 INT
108.3 passer rating
16 completions 20+
11 completions 30+
Jordan Love when targeting Watson, Doubs, Toure
103 targets
52 catches
50.5 percent
641 yards
6.2 per attempt
12.3 per completion
7 TD passes
9 INTs
56.3 passer rating
7 completions 20+
4 completions 30+
A lot of context lies behind all the numbers. Watson missed three games with a hamstring injury, and Love hasn’t been particularly accurate targeting him, especially on deep throws. Watson and Doubs, the most targeted receiver in Green Bay, are getting a lot of attention from opposing coverages. In many scenarios, Love is forcing the ball to his more experienced targets in big moments. All that matters, obviously, in creating a set of numbers.
One thing is clear: the rookies look like they belong. Reed and Musgrave continue creating explosive plays and look more and more like go-to targets. Wicks (almost 60 percent success rate) has been incredibly efficient and almost unbelievably good at getting open. Reed’s vertical ability from the slot, Musgrave’s pure speed and Wicks’ suddenness in routes are all traits the Packers can and probably will build the passing game around in future years.
But the Packers do need more from the sophomores to end 2023, especially Watson and Doubs.
Watson is catching 42.4 percent of his targets, ranking last among 199 qualified pass-catchers in 2023. While there are mitigating factors in play, 42.4 percent is an unacceptable number, even for a deep threat who is struggling to make contested catches.
Doubs might have six touchdown catches, including several important scores, but he’s also averaging 5.8 yards per target, which ranks 121st and is far closer to an average seen for a running back compared to a starting wide receiver. He’s catching only 55.9 percent of his targets and averaging just 10.4 yards per catch — a bad combo.
The Packers have seven more games to play. Of course, Love needs to be better throwing to his second-year targets. It’s hard to imagine he’s struggling to get on the same page as players he worked with extensively in practice last year, but this whole season has been a learning experience at quarterback and receiver.
It will be interesting to see how these numbers look come the end of 2023. Can the rookies keep ascending? Will the sophomores break out of the slump? If the rookies trio can continue to produce big plays while the sophomores improve — even marginally — this passing game could take off.
