Green Bay Packers rookie tight end Luke Musgrave has been a big part of the offense through five games. However, what we haven’t seen much of is that big play potential he possesses.
Coming out of the bye week, Musgrave is third on the team in targets and third on the team in receiving yards. Overall, he has been efficient, catching 18 of the 23 passes thrown his way for 159 yards. But his 8.8 yards per catch ranks 27th out of 45 eligible tight ends.
After totaling 75 yards and averaging 15 yards per catch the first two weeks, we’ve seen Musgrave’s efficiency decline. Against New Orleans, he averaged 8.2 yards per catch on six receptions. He had just one catch versus Detroit for one yard, and although he was targeted six times against Las Vegas, he averaged only 5.7 yards per catch. During that span of three games, Musgrave ranks 31st out of 40 tight ends in PFF’s yards per route run metric.
There are likely a few contributors to this. One is the overall disjointed nature of the Packers’ passing game at the moment. This includes Jordan Love’s inaccuracy but also a lack of attention to detail by Green Bay’s young pass catchers in their routes, which includes Musgrave, and that throws off the entire route with the pass catcher not being in the right place at the right time.
“It’s just reps,” said offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich. “And the good thing watching, if you go back and watch all five games over the break here, you watch how they’ve (the rookie tight ends) improved and it’s been pretty good. You can see them taking steps forward, especially in the run game. So I’m excited about those guys and how they’ve progressed so far. Obviously is they just keep going we’ll have a pretty good unit eventually.”
With the Packers’ inability to connect on downfield passes coupled with their ineffectiveness in the run game, defenses really do not have a lot to fear. This leads to opponents shrinking the field and muddying things up over the middle, giving the offense less room to operate within. This specifically could impact Musgrave quite a bit, as he is a mismatch problem over the middle on intermediate routes. Through five games, however, he has only three targets in the 10 to 19-yard range.
Also impacting Musgrave’s big play ability is how he is being utilized. Over the last two games specifically, Musgrave’s average depth of target is just 0.6 yards–or basically at the line of scrimmage. On those plays, he has been able to pick up yards after the catch consistently, but there is only so much that can be done by a tight end when targeted in that part of the field. Using Musgrave in this fashion as often as the Packers have as of late could be a product of what I discussed in the last paragraph.
On top of all of that, the tight end position is, what Matt LaFleur called, the second-most difficult position to transition to out of college after quarterback, given all the responsibilities that come with this role. Or in short, Musgrave is experiencing a steep learning curve, not to mention that with more film on the Packers’ offense each week, defenses have the ability to scheme up ways to try and limit his effectiveness.
Throughout offseason programs, training camp practices and the preseason, Musgrave was not only a focal point, but was targeted often on those intermediate routes where he could get the ball in space with YAC potential. With his combination of size, speed, and overall athleticism, Musgrave can be a tough matchup for any slot defender, whether it be a corner, safety or linebacker. He also can create mismatches on the boundary as well with that combination of size and speed.
Musgrave’s presence will not only create big plays for himself, but he has the potential to have a Christian Watson-like gravity at the tight end position, where with the attention he draws, it creates better spacing and pass catching opportunities for others in the offense.
Unfortunately, there likely isn’t a simple quick fix that opens up these big play opportunities for Musgrave. It’s the attention to detail from both him and the rest of the offense. The pass blocking has to improve, and either finding some sort of success on downfield attempts or in the run game can help unclog the middle of the field.
Following the Detroit game, Matt LaFleur mentioned that the offense has to do a better job of getting the ball in their playmakers hands, even if that includes scheming up opportunities. The Packers have done that, but not in the fashion many expected, with Musgrave being a frequent target near the line of scrimmage. To a degree, this offense is somewhat limited in what can be drawn up because it’s been hampered in so many other areas. Not to say that there aren’t ways to get Musgrave more intermediate to downfield targets, but until other areas improve, we may not see the full effect of having him within the offense take place.
“He’s a guy as you go back and watch, it’s like alright, how can we get our playmakers the ball?” said Stenavich. “That’s the biggest thing. He’s one of those guys that we need to find ways to get more involved for sure.”
