On the Green Bay Packers’ radar this Sunday will have to be Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren, who has been a go-to option for quarterback Kenny Pickett in the passing game.
Warren is a 2022 undrafted rookie out of Oklahoma State. He will enter Week 10 as Pittsburgh’s second-leading receiver in terms of receptions, only one behind George Pickens, and he also ranks third on the team in receiving yards.
Most of Warren’s pass-catching opportunities have come out of the backfield, where he has made a number of splash plays, ranking 10th among all running backs in receiving yards and fifth in yards after the catch.
“I think Naj (Najee Harris) is a great back,” said Joe Barry on Thursday, “and this guy is a great compliment. He’s their second-leading receiver. So they do a great job with him, not only just turning and handing the ball off to him but using him in the passing game. He does a great job in their screen game. He’s been a splash play guy for them.”
Against running backs in the passing game this season, Green Bay’s defense is allowing nearly seven targets per game–the ninth-most in football. On average, opposing running backs are catching nearly six of those targets, and the Packers have done well limiting their opportunities, allowing 6.43 yards per catch–the ninth-fewest this season.
Pickett does not push the ball downfield, ranking 30th this season in pass attempts of 20-plus yards. But what he does is target Pickens heavily on intermediate routes of 10-19 yards and Warren quite often on short area throws or behind the line of scrimmage.
Najee Harris is still the Steelers lead back in the run game, but Warren has seen his role increase there over the last few games, averaging about 10 rush attempts per contest during that span. His 4.7 yards per rush ranks 12th this season, and despite having the 43rd most carries, Warren has the 18th most rushes of 10-plus yards and the 19th most missed tackles forced.
Overall, the Steelers offense is averaging just 16.6 points per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. However, along with Warren, there are still several other playmakers that this Green Bay defense has to be concerned with, including the aforementioned Harris and Pickens, who ranks 11th in yards per catch among all receivers, along with Diontae Johnson and Allen Robinson.
“I think they’ve got a lot of playmakers,” said Matt LaFleur. “I know there’s been some inconsistencies there with their offense. Certainly, you can never sleep on them. They’ve got playmakers. I think all three of those receivers are really good players. Pickens, he has shown that big play potential. Diontae Johnson. Obviously, Najee, he’s a problem in terms of just a big physical back. And they got Warren, the other back. They’ve got a lot of playmakers. You’ve got to do a great job of being consistent and not letting those guys get loose.”
Pickett will enter Sunday’s game ranked 29th in completion rate and 26th in yards per attempt. Limiting Warren’s impact in the passing game and taking away that safety net for Pickett will be an important aspect for this Packers’ defense–forcing Pickett to push the ball downfield.
Doing this will take all 11 defenders swarming to the ball to limit yards after the catch potential, where Warren has thrived this season. Shrinking the field by playing closer to the line of scrimmage with Pickett’s unwillingness to throw downfield and dropping seven into coverage with four pass rushers against an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection are two other tactics that could help limit Warren’s impact as well.
