By almost any useful statistical measure of a football team, the 2024 Green Bay Packers have the look of one of the NFL’s elite or near-elite teams entering the postseason.
Most would probably be comfortable calling the Packers elite if not for one big, important hurdle: Matt LaFleur’s team is 0-5 in games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions.
The Packers had many chances to prove they were ones of the NFL’s elite and consistently came up short. As a result, LaFleur’s team is headed to Philadelphia to face the Eagles — one of the legitimately elite teams based on regular season results — as the No. 7 seed. And the Packers are guaranteed nothing more than one more shot to take down one of the NFC’s best.
The big win might be all this team needs to put the puzzle pieces together.
The Packers finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 of NFL teams in points per game scored (27.1, 8th), points per game allowed (19.9, 6th), yards gained per play (6.1, 5th), yards allowed per play (5.2, 8th), takeaways (31, 4th), sacks (45, 8th), sacks allowed (22, 2nd), rushing yards (2,496, 5th), rushing yards allowed (1,689, 7th), yards per rushing attempt (4.7, 7th), yards per rushing attempt allowed (4.0, 3rd), passer rating (99.8, 10th), passer rating against (88.5, 9th), average net yards per attempt (7.7, 4th), touchdowns scored (52, 8th), red zone touchdown percentage (59.4, 10th), drives resulting in scores percentage (45.9, 6th) and interceptions (17, 3rd).
By DVOA, or value adjusted for opponent, the Packers rank third overall — including fourth on offense, seventh on defense and 15th on special teams.
By EPA per play, or expected points added per play, the Packers exist in the upper right quadrant of the team tiers — meaning they are among the best on both offense and defense after 18 weeks. The Packers rank eighth in EPA per play on offense and fourth in EPA per play on defense.
Numbers are just numbers, and numbers can lie. But the entirety of the numbers — from Week 1 to Week 18 — paint the picture of the Packers as a great football team.
But numbers don’t mean much if a team can’t rise to the occasion against the best of the best.
The Packers couldn’t finish in the second half in Brazil to open the season, let the Eagles go on the marathon drive in the fourth quarter and lost 34-29.
The Packers fell behind the Vikings 28-0 in the first half, got the game to 28-22 but never had the football with a chance to tie or take the lead in a 31-29 defeat.
The Packers fell behind the Lions 24-3 early in the second half, failed to mount a rally and lost 24-14 at a rainy Lambeau Field.
The Packers fell behind the Lions 17-7 in the first half and then lost a back-and-forth battle in the second half when the Lions drove for the game-winning field goal in a 34-31 loss.
The Packers fell behind the Vikings 20-3 and 27-10 in the second half and lost 27-25 when the defense couldn’t get a late stop.
Sunday’s season finale loss to the Chicago Bears was a weird and wacky football game and probably shouldn’t be factored into any heavy analysis of the Packers as a team. A playoff spot was clinched, Jordan Love left in the second quarter and Josh Jacobs got six carries. If not for late meltdowns in time management on both sides of the ball, the Packers would have escaped.
A new season begins now. The Packers and 13 other teams are 0-0 with a chance to win the Super Bowl. For LaFleur’s team, three road wins will be required in a loaded NFC playoff field to get to New Orleans for the Super Bowl next month.
The first — and possibly only — opportunity arrives Sunday in Philadelphia.
The Packers got two chances to beat the Vikings and Lions and couldn’t get a win. They’ll get a second shot at the Eagles to open the postseason. This one can’t be squandered.
The 2024 Packers are, in almost every way, a better football team than the 2023 Packers. But history will look back on this team far differently — the 2023 team provided a remarkable story in December and January — unless the Packers can go into Philadelphia and prove their might.
The stats no longer matter. Neither does 0-5.
The Packers will be rightfully painted as frauds or paper tigers if they can’t beat the Eagles Sunday. But they also have a chance to awaken what could be a sleeping giant if they can do what has alluded them all season. It’s well past time for the 2024 Packers to prove if they are legit or not. A knockout-style, one-and-done tournament should be the ideal arena to reveal what is currently hidden under elite numbers and a mess of missed opportunities against the best.
