49ers 13, Packers 10— FINAL
The 49ers are going to the NFC Championship! In what was an underwhelming offensive showing for both the Packers and the Niners, it all came down to defense and special teams. Neither quarterback threw for a touchdown, and not one offensive player scored a touchdown for San Francisco, but it didn’t matter. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown made all the difference as San Francisco tied it up late in the fourth quarter. They were then able to control the ball late in the game which set Robbie Gould up for the game winning field goal.
Aaron Rodgers underwhelmed, completing only 20 of his 29 passes for no touchdowns, but Aaron Jones shined—catching nine of ten targets for 129 yards with another 41 yards on the ground. AJ Dillon had the one touchdown in this game for the Packers, and it simply wasn’t enough.
Jimmy Garoppolo was sacked multiple times and only completed 11 of 19 passes for 131 yards with an interception, but it didn’t matter. The surging 49ers found a way to get it done. Deebo Samuel fell .5 short of his rushing yards prop, while George Kittle had a strong day.
But the biggest story of the day: Saturday belongs to the kickers. Not one, but two low-scoring divisional series games came down to a kick at the buzzer. Rookie Evan McPherson and veteran Robbie Gould shined brightly tonight. Maybe we should keep kickers in our fantasy leagues, after all.
Bettors of the over were surely disappointed in the 13–10 final score, but those who picked the 49ers +5.5 are sitting pretty tonight.
Next up, Jimmy G and the Niners will face either Tom Brady and the Bucs or Matt Stafford and the Rams in the NFC Championship game Sunday January 30th at 6:40 p.m. ET.
11:05 p.m. ET — The Kick Is Good! San Francisco Wins!
Robbie Gould’s field goal is good and the 49ers have a dramatic win at the buzzer! The third huge upset in a row for the red and gold!
The 49ers cover the spread and win outright.
11:04 p.m. ET — Deebo Keeps Rolling
Deebo Samuel picks up the first down and keeps the momentum going with San Francisco. He’s one yard short of his rushing prop with 39.
11:02 p.m. ET — Can San Francisco Pull This Off?
The 49ers are running out the clock and will attempt to kick a field goal for the win. 1:10 remains.
11:00 p.m. ET — Time is Running Out
After Green Bay goes three and out, the Niners have the ball back and are driving. This game is going down to the wire.
10:48 p.m. ET — Tie Game!
Big play!! The punt is blocked by Jordan Willis, and recovered by San Francisco for a touchdown. Robbie Gould’s extra point is good and the game is now tied 10–10. San Francisco +5.5 bettors feeling pretty good right now.
10:41 p.m. ET — Kyle Shanahan's Play Call
That was an awful play call by Kyle Shanahan. How does he not go to the outside when the Packers allowed 7.3 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the right in the last 4 weeks of the regular season?
10:40 p.m. ET — Fourth Down Attempt Goes Nowhere
San Francisco chooses to go for it on 4th down, but Eli Mitchell is stuffed for -1 yards. Green Bay’s ball.
10:30 p.m. ET — Packers Extend Lead
San Francisco defense comes up big again. Aaron Rodgers is sacked and they are forced to kick a field goal. Mason Crosby kicks from 33 yards. Packers 10, 49ers 3. Green Bay is currently covering the -5.5 spread, but bettors are nervous on their couches.
10:26 p.m. ET — Allen Lazard sighting
An Allen Lazard sighting! Please—more of that. We need over 38.5 receiving yards, Aaron. First and goal.
10:19 p.m. ET — Rodgers Connects With Adams
Aaron Rodgers finds Davante Adams for 25 yards as the third quarter comes to an end. Green Bay is on San Francisco’s 19. I feel like we get points here. We have to get points here, right?!
10:11 p.m. ET — Garoppolo Sacked For Third Time
Jimmy G is sacked for the third time on third down. They will punt it away again. Can someone get Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo on the line and tell them they aren’t playing golf? The higher score wins.
10:06 p.m. ET — Scoreless Possessions Continue
Green Bay goes three and out. San Francisco’s defense continues to keep them in this game. Green Bay has now had six consecutive scoreless possessions.
10:02 p.m. ET — 49ers On The Board
San Francisco puts their first points on the board with a 29-yard field goal from Robbie Gould. The score is now 7–3 Packers.
10:00 p.m. ET — Deebo Samuel Down
Deebo Samuel was injured on a 12 yard catch. I am trying to get the football gods on the line again- STAT.
9:56 p.m. ET — Costly Calls
Consecutive penalties on Elijah Mitchell (face mask) and Brandon Aiyuk (illegal formation) cost the Niners another 20 yards.
9:55 p.m. ET — In the Driver's Seat
San Francisco finally gets the ball in Deebo’s hands, and they are driving.
9:51 p.m. ET — Deebo Samuel Comes in Clutch
Strong start to the third quarter for the Niners, as Deebo Samuel returns the kick for 45 yards. Maybe the football gods did hear me!
9:45 p.m. ET — Can You Hear Us?
I prayed to the football gods for more points. Let’s see if they heard my plea. At this point, I’ve given up hope for the over on the game total, but I still think Deebo has a shot to clear the 39.5 yard rushing prop.
9:37 p.m. ET — Field Goal Attempt BLOCKED!
San Francisco’s special teams unit comes up big with a blocked kick.
Green Bay goes into the half with only a seven point lead. The 49ers defense has kept them in the game, but they have to get their offense going. They’ll get the ball coming out of the half.
9:34 p.m. ET — Deep Pass to Aaron Jones
Aaron Rodgers flaunts his healthy toe with a 75 yard deep pass to his running back. Aaron Jones now has 20 fantasy points and has far exceeded his receiving prop.
9:28 p.m. ET — Red Zone Interception
Jimmy G is intercepted by Adrian Amos on a pass intended for George Kittle at the four yard line.
Epic fail.
9:24 p.m. ET — Two Minute Warning
Two minute warning, and the 49ers are starting to look a little frisky. Elijah Mitchell dominated this series, and the Niners should be able to get on the board here. San Francisco now has 42 yards of total offense compared to Green Bay’s 128.
9:20 p.m. ET — Incredible Catch By Kittle
San Francisco gets their first first down of the game, as Jimmy G completes his first pass of the game to George Kittle for 15 yards.
9:15 p.m. ET — Go For it on 4th and Two?
Green Bay has to punt away after a delay of game penalty disrupts their attempt to go for it on 4th down.
9:10 p.m. ET — Three Cheers for a First Down!
Green Bay converted a first down!!! This shouldn’t warrant three exclamation points, but at this point, I am excited for any action. Davante Adams for eight yards. Packers have 8 first downs in this game. 49ers have none.
9:04 p.m. ET — Rashan Gary Takes Down Jimmy G—Again
Garoppolo sacked again. This has to be a record for QB sacks in a single day of divisional football. Someone tell Jimmy G he should let Burrow win this race.
9:00 p.m. ET — Aaron Rodgers Sacked
Aaron Rodgers is sacked for a loss of six yards on third down. That’s back-to-back three and out for Green Bay. Now is a good time for San Francisco to get back in this game.
8:55 p.m. ET — On to the Next
At the end of the first quarter, the score is 7–0 Packers, but it feels like they should be up bigger, as San Francisco doesn’t look ready for this game. The 49ers have negative passing yards (-14) and they have a total of minus seven yards of total offense.
Minus seven—yikes.
8:53 p.m. ET — Three and Out (Again ...)
Annnnnnd San Francisco now goes three and out, and I am starting to feel grumpy that I took the over on this game.
8:51 p.m. ET — Three and Out
Green Bay goes three and out and SF has another chance to make some noise.
8:45 p.m. ET — Back to Green Bay
Jimmy G is sacked again and San Francisco has to punt away. But, at least it wasn’t Aiyuk’s fault, right?
8:44 p.m. ET — 49ers’ Drive Continues
Call is reversed. It’s an incomplete pass, and Brandon Aiyuk lives to play another snap.
8:41 p.m. ET — Did He Fumble?
And that was over as quickly as it started. Aiyuk fumbles and it is recovered by K. Barnes at Green Bay’s 39 yard line. Barnes takes it to SF’s 40 for 21 yards. Aiyuk could be back in Shanahan’s doghouse. It goes to the booth for review.
8:40 p.m. ET — Deebo's Rushing Prop
Deebo Samuel picks up five yards on the first play of the drive. Deebo’s rushing prop for today is 39.5 at SI Sportsbook.
8:37 p.m. ET — 49ers Recover Fumble
Marcedes Lewis (Fred Warner) fumbles and San Francisco recovers the ball at their own 42 yard line. Packers fans put down their cheese curds. San Francisco must take advantage here.
8:30 p.m. ET — Cheesy Cheers
Packers fans cheering—and probably running out for more cheese curds.
8:29 p.m. ET — Jimmy G Sacked
Jimmy G is sacked for a loss of nine yards. They will be forced to punt away, and Green Bay is back in the driver’s seat.
8:28 p.m. ET — False Start
A false start penalty on San Francisco costs them five yards. The 49ers averaged 61.8 penalty yards per game this season—worst in NFL.
8:24 p.m. ET — AJ Dillon's TD Pays
If you had AJ Dillon for first TD it paid +875. You put down $100, you made $875—you can’t quit your day job, but you can buy dinner next time. An anytime TD paid +125. AJ Dillon now has 7 fantasy points.
8:23 p.m. ET — Green Bay on the Board
AJ Dillon up the middle for a 6 yard touchdown! Green Bay has made a statement with this dominant opening drive. 7–0 Packers.
8:21 p.m. ET — Packers Set the Pace
Green Bay is driving and—as expected—Davante Adams is the focal point of this offense. Adams already has three catches for 35 yards. He’s on pace for a big night.
8:17 p.m. ET — Kick Off!
Green Bay receives and runs the ball with Aaron Jones on 1st down for four yards. Rodgers moves the chains quickly with a 14 yard completion to Davante Adams.
8:04 p.m. ET — Weather Woes
It’s currently 13°F, with a real feel of 2°F at Lambeau Field. Will Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder hold up in the chilly temps? Will Aaron Rodgers’s toe be a full go?
6:45 p.m. ET — Top Player Props
With the Titans-Bengals underway, I am locking in some of my top player props at SI Sportsbook.
Deebo Samuel OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-188)
Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+100)
PARLAY +280
Samuel has seen 18 carries for 117 yards and two touchdowns across his past two games. Is it a coincidence that San Francisco pulled off upset wins in both of those games? I don’t think so. If the Niners want to be successful vs. this Green Bay team in frigid weather, they will have to get the ball in Samuel’s hands.
Allen Lazard OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-120)
With no MVS, Lazard is set up for another good day. He’s seen an average of six targets and one touchdown per game across his last five games, and he’s exceeded this receiving prop in four of them. Davante Adams will likely have the starring role tonight, and Randall Cobb could return with some success in the slot, but Lazard has been Rodgers’s go-to guy as of late. Lazard is at his best when he’s Aaron Rodgers’s No. 2.
I am personally laying the -5.5 points for Green Bay to cover the spread (-110) and taking the over on the current game total of 47.5 (-110).
Let’s see how it goes!
6:30 p.m. ET — The Divisional Round Continues!
The Divisional round weekend continues as the San Francisco 49ers head to Lambeau Field to take on the NFC No. 1 seed Green Bay Packers Saturday night. The weather is expected to be a chilly 10 degrees at the 8:15 EST kickoff.
The 49ers enter this contest as 5.5 point underdogs and will look to continue their late-season momentum Saturday night. San Francisco has now won eight of its last ten matchups, the last two of which were upsets vs. post-season teams: the Rams and the Cowboys. Look for the Niners to continue to feature their run game, as the Green Bay Packers allowed 5.13 yards- per-carry across their last four regular-season contests. Running back Elijah Mitchell will continue to see volume, and Deebo Samuel will be featured in the run game as well.
The Niners have had tremendous success since deploying Samuel as a Swiss Army Knife. The wide receiver has averaged more than seven carries per game since Week 10, including 18 carries across the past two contests for a total of 117 yards and two touchdowns. Jimmy Garoppolo will need to get the ball in Samuel’s hands to have any chance at another upset. Not only is Samuel a weapon on the ground, the Niners are 11–7 when Samuel has more receptions than his average (4) since the 2019 season.
Look for receiver Brandon Aiyuk to also be involved. Aiyuk had 275 receiving yards across his last four regular-season games (10th most among WR).
Though tight end George Kittle hasn’t made a big splash recently, he had nine targets for 92 yards last time the two teams matched up in Week 3.
At quarterback, Jimmy G had 12 interceptions on 441 attempts this season (2.7%)—tied for the 10th highest rate in the league. Green Bay is averaging 1.1 interceptions per game, and Garoppolo will need to play mistake-free football to have a chance at pulling off the upset. As a whole, the Niners will need to play clean football as they have averaged 61.8 penalty yards per game this season—that’s the worst mark in NFL.
While the key to San Francisco’s game will likely be the ground attack, Green Bay will attack through the air. Aaron Rodgers is playing extraordinary football once again this season, throwing for 37 touchdowns on just 367 completions—tied for the best mark in the league. His play has been nearly perfect. Rodgers only threw four interceptions in 531 pass attempts (.8%)—the best mark in the league. He’s well-rested and should be in top form, and it’s no secret he dominates at Lambeau. Rodgers is 83-18-1 for his regular-season career when at home. Though the weather might suggest more of a ground game for San Francisco, it won’t slow Aaron Rodgers down.
San Francisco’s run defense has been stout, allowing less than 60 yards per game across their last four regular-season contests, but running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should still have success running downhill at Lambeau.
The bigger day, however, will likely belong to wideout Davante Adams. Adams continues to dominate, averaging 7.7 catches and 97 yards per game. Last time these two teams matched up in Week 3, the alpha receiver had 121 yards on nine targets.
SI Sportsbook currently has this game total at 47 with the Packers favored by 5.5. The Packers were 12–5 (70.6%) ATS this season, while the 49ers were 10-8 ATS (55.6%). However, Road Dogs getting between 3 and 6 points have covered the spread 57% of the time in the past three seasons.
Can the 49ers continue their late-season magic, or will the reigning MVP put an end to their post-season hopes? We are about to find out!
