Warning that sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate, particularly around vulnerable Pacific island nations, UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a fresh climate SOS to the world. His alert coincides with a new report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which warns that climate change threatens the very existence of the Pacific archipelagos.
The WMO’s State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific 2023 report, released Monday, stated that "2023 was substantially warmer than the previous several years" in the region, which is "extremely prone to disasters associated with hydrometeorological hazards, especially storms and floods."
The report recorded 34 such hazard events in 2023, leading to over 200 fatalities and affecting more than 25 million people.
Its publication coincides with the 53d Pacific Islands Forum (26-30 August) hosted by Tonga.
“This is a crazy situation. Rising seas are a crisis entirely of humanity's making. A crisis that will soon swell to an almost unimaginable scale, with no lifeboat to take us back to safety," Guterres said at the forum.
“A worldwide catastrophe is putting this Pacific paradise in peril. The ocean is overflowing.”
The WMO reports that sea levels in Tonga's capital, Nuku'alofa, have risen 21cm between 1990 and 2020 – twice the global average of 10cm. Apia, in Samoa, has seen a 31cm rise, while Suva, in Fiji, recorded a 29cm increase.
Since 1980, coastal flooding in Guam has surged from twice a year to 22 times a year, while the Cook Islands experienced an increase from five to 43 times annually. In Pago Pago, American Samoa, coastal flooding jumped from zero to 102 times a year, the report said.
“Because of sea level rise, the ocean is transforming from being a lifelong friend into a growing threat,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Nuku’alofa on Tuesday.
Guterres warned that this "puts Pacific Island nations in grave danger", with about 90 percent of the region's people living within five kilometres of the rising oceans.
“The alarm is justified,” said S. Jeffress Williams, a retired US Geological Survey sea level scientist.
He said the situation is especially dire for Pacific islands, as their low elevations make them particularly vulnerable. Three external experts confirmed that the sea level reports accurately reflect the ongoing situation.
The Pacific region is suffering despite contributing only 0.2 percent of the heat-trapping gases that cause climate change and expanding oceans, the UN said.
The largest share of sea level rise is due to melting ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, along with land glaciers. Warmer water also expands based on the laws of physics.
About 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases is absorbed by the oceans, the UN added.
Sea level rises faster than ever
Sea level rise has been accelerating worldwide, according to the UN report said. Guterres pointed out that the rate is now the faster than it has ever been in the last 3,000 years.
Sea level rise has been accelerating worldwide, the UN report said. Guterres noted that the rate is now faster than at any time in the last 3,000 years.
Between 1901 and 1971, global average sea level rose by 1.3cm per decade. This increased to 1.9cm per decade between 1971 and 2006, and then to 3.7cm per decade between 2006 and 2018. Over the past decade, seas have risen 4.8cm.
If this rate remains unchanged, global sea levels will have risen by approximately 36.9cm by the end of this century.
Low-lying island nations like the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are particularly at risk. Even modest increases in sea level can lead to more frequent and severe coastal flooding, threatening homes, infrastructure and arable land.
According to separate remarks by the UN this week, cities in the richest 20 nations – which are responsible for 80 percent of heat-trapping gases – also face rising seas near large population centres.
Cities where sea level rise was at least 50 percent higher than the global average over the past 30 years include Shanghai, Perth, London, Atlantic City, Boston, Miami and New Orleans.
Next month, the United Nations General Assembly will hold a special session to discuss rising seas.
