There is one immutable law in college athletics: #Pac12AfterDark cannot be stopped.
The latest turn in conference realignment broke shortly before midnight ET Thursday, when word dropped that the Pac-12 was crawling out of the casket with the addition of four new schools. For a league that became famous for wild late-night developments on the football field, this was on brand.
The formal announcements came Thursday morning.
In the zero-sum game of realignment, it’s a triumphant day for Oregon State, Washington State and the withered husk of the Pac-12. After being left for dead a year ago, they have new life. It’s not a return to power-conference status, but it’s a hell of a comeback.
It’s an exciting day for Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State. Decades of effort and money expended to be in position for this round of realignment has paid off.
It’s a hopeful day for a few other non-power-conference schools striving to join them. At least two will be invited to reach the NCAA-mandated minimum of eight members for an FBS league, and possibly more. Dare to dream.
And it’s a devastating day for those left behind in a suddenly emaciated Mountain West Conference. Maybe one or two more are added to the new Pac-12, but most of the Abandoned Eight will not be.
As a New Mexico fan put it on X Thursday morning, “It was inevitable, but it still stings. New Mexico is being left behind, and as an alum, it’s heartbreaking to watch. It feels like we’re being beaten in a race we never had a chance to win. It’s disappointing, frustrating, and makes me question why I still care about college sports.”
This is the way of college athletics in modern times. Eat or be eaten. Every move has winners and losers and massive stakes. No one should be trusted to look out for anyone other than themselves.
There is always another wave of schools trying to move up in the hierarchy—from mid-major conference to high-major, from low-major to mid-major, from FCS to low-major. That’s how we reached 134 FBS teams this year, when the number was 120 just 15 years ago. But FBS membership will become much more expensive in the near future, which could limit the upward mobility of schools. The gravy train can’t keep adding passengers in perpetuity.
For the moment, let’s focus on the winners here.
There is status associated with the Pac-12 brand. And money. That’s why it was kept alive. That’s why it was worth fighting for in court, with Oregon State and Washington State suing the departing schools for tens of millions of dollars in conference revenue and to keep the conference name. The Conference of Champions may not win many championships going forward, but it still exists and—as of Thursday—has regained some allure.
Those two schools showed patience and determination in a time of acute crisis, sticking together in a two-team ghost league this year and planning their next move. Instead of being absorbed into the Mountain West, they went on a raid. They had more to offer to the top tier of that league than the Mountain West had to offer them.
For them to pull this off the very week that Oregon State hosts Oregon and Washington State plays Washington—revenge rivalry games against schools that imperiled their existence—is a poetic flourish. There will be a freshly strengthened sense of pride from the Beavers and Cougars fans in those pregame tailgates.
The four Mountain West call-ups should be feeling great today as well.
At Boise State, the rise has been breathtaking. It’s not that long ago the school was a junior college, and in the 1990s, it was an FCS athletic program. Its only calling card was the blue artificial turf in the stadium. But a string of inspired coaching hires elevated the program, from Dirk Koetter to Dan Hawkins to Chris Petersen. When Petersen stayed for eight seasons, flirting with national championship contention, a new level was attained in a rapidly growing market.
At Colorado State, football success has been intermittent since Sonny Lubick had 10 straight winning seasons from 1994 to 2003. But Fort Collins is a fast-growing city that is now more populated than Boulder, and the school committed to building a new stadium that opened in ’17. The Rams have hosted multiple power-conference opponents since then—including Oregon State and Washington State—and Colorado visits Saturday for a heated rivalry game.
At Fresno State, the pugnacious promise of the Pat Hill era carried over to successful runs by Tim DeRuyter, Jeff Tedford (twice) and Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs have had 12 nine-win seasons in the 21st century, galvanizing a dedicated fan base in the Central Valley of California.
And at San Diego State, a great football run from 2010 to ’21 solidified the program and set it on a course to build its own new stadium, which opened in ’22. That, combined with sustained excellence in men’s basketball that culminated in a ’23 Final Four run, checked the performance boxes. The location in Southern California made it a no-brainer for the new Pac-12.
So who is next?
Stanford and California aren’t backtracking after going to the Atlantic Coast Conference. They signed a grant of rights agreement that locks them in financially, but it also would be a dramatic retrenchment in terms of all-sports competition and academic profile. There is a reason they pushed hard to join the ACC last year—because they didn’t want to be part of a Pac-12 survivor league.
UNLV is the glaring absence from the expansion Thursday. Their location in a major, centrally located market, and as the logical hub for football and basketball championships, makes the Rebels a natural fit. But there could be political headwinds to fight if UNLV tries to separate itself from fellow state school Nevada. They may sink or swim together, and it will be fascinating to see if the Pac-12 takes in the Wolf Pack in order to secure Las Vegas.
As for the rest of the Mountain West: Air Force has service-academy prestige and a national brand of sorts, which could make it desirable, although the Falcons could also revisit their flirtation from a couple of years ago with the American Athletic Conference, where Army and Navy reside. Wyoming and New Mexico are the flagship schools in states without major pro sports, but Wyoming is sparsely populated and New Mexico is a football graveyard. Utah State is in a rapidly growing state, but is the distant No. 3 college brand. If the Pac-12 wanted San Jose State, it probably would have had them today. Hawaii is a nice place to visit, but not much of an athletic presence and a tough commute.
The new Pac-12 could look to plant a flag in the state of Texas, but there is no guarantee it could persuade AAC members UTSA or North Texas to switch leagues. Texas State or UTEP would be more willing, but perhaps less appealing. It seems unlikely that Tulane, Memphis or South Florida would uproot for what looks like a lateral, long-distance move.
The only certainty is that there will be more movement. Conference realignment never rests.
But for today, it’s a celebration of Pac-12 survivors and Mountain West strivers. And a day of mourning for the Abandoned Eight who are the latest to deal with a raid of their ranks.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Pac-12’s Comeback is Triumphant for Two Teams and Hopeful for Others Striving to Join.
