Bristol Rovers’ relative comfort in the League One standings ensures that we won’t be hearing the cliche “nine cup finals” for now but the Gas still have work to do this season to secure their third tier status for next season and also ease a bit of the growing anxiety around the stands at the Mem.
Rovers have only fallen four places in the table since the start of the year, but the narrative around the campaign has shifted significantly. The Gas are winless and largely scoreless in their last seven home games but do retain a 10-point buffer on the bottom four in the division with nine games to go.
Bookmakers and analysts don’t consider them in the relegation conversation but they are still seven points shy of Joey Barton’s 52-point target which he believes will mathematically keep them in the league for next season (although, in reality, it could be less).
Rovers are also in the midst of a near three-week break following their 2-0 defeat to Portsmouth on Saturday following the postponements of their matches against Shrewsbury Town and Plymouth Argyle, allowing them to take stock but it also means their remaining schedule is tightly packed into the final 31 days of the season.
We’ve taken a look at the remaining games for all the teams in the bottom half of League One, from Exeter City in 13th to Forest Green Rovers in 24th, and analysed the difficulty of each run-in based on the league position of each opponent and then also their place in the division as regards to their home and away form.
For example, when Rovers face Derby County at the Mem on April 15, the Rams are fifth in the table but 10th in terms of their results away from Pride Park, so have a slightly different difficulty rating. The higher the number the (theoretically) more agreeable the remaining set of games are for each side.
Granted, it’s not an exact science, plus the fact that by the time teams come to play matches towards the end of April the league table may look very different in terms of respective positions - while Rovers, ultimately, can only concentrate on who they need to play (and beat) - but it provides an overview at this point in time of the comparative run-ins and how the final quarter of the season could play out…
13. Exeter City (46pts, 0 GD)
March 25 - Accrington (H)
March 28 - Barnsley (H)
April 1 - Fleetwood (A)
April 7 - Bolton (H)
April 10 - Peterborough (A)
April 15 - Plymouth (H)
April 18 - Derby (H)
April 22 - Sheffield Wednesday (A)
April 29 - Ipswich (A)
May 7 - Morecambe (H)
Average league position of opponents: 8.3
Average based on opposition home/away record: 10.1
On paper, the Grecians have the second-hardest run-in (after Rovers) but it’s tempered by the fact they face some of the promotion-hunting teams at St James’ Park plus two matches in their own back yard against Accrington and Morecambe who, as you’d expect, have poor away records.
14. Lincoln City (45pts, -5)
March 25 - Fleetwood (A)
April 1 - Sheffield Wednesday (A)
April 7 - Cheltenham (H)
April 10 - Plymouth (A)
April 15 - Port Vale (H)
April 18 - Barnsley (H)
April 22 - Wycombe (A)
April 25 - Burton (H)
April 29 - Morecambe (A)
May 7 - Shrewsbury (H)
Average league position of opponents: 11.0
Average based on opposition home/away record: 11.5
A very manageable schedule for the Imps who have to play one more match then many of their rivals and although have to travel to Hillsborough and Adams Park, have plenty of opportunities to get more points on the board.
15. Bristol Rovers (45pts, -10)
April 7 - Charlton (H)
April 10 - Fleetwood (A)
April 15 - Derby (H)
April 18 - Sheffield Wednesday (H)
April 22 - Port Vale (A)
April 25 - Plymouth (A)
April 29 - Peterborough (A)
May 2 - Shrewsbury (A)
May 7 - Bolton (H)
Average league position of opponents: 7.7
Average based on opposition home/away record: 9.2
The toughest run-in, across both metrics which you can either be concerned about or consider it as an excellent and ideal challenge for the Gas that will hopefully deliver enough points to ensure they're not have to look over their shoulder, while also giving Barton a good barometer as to where his squad is at heading into the summer.
16. Port Vale (44pts, -15)
March 25 - Portsmouth (A)
April 1 - Cambridge (H)
April 7 - Accrington (A)
April 10 - Oxford (H)
April 15 - Lincoln (A)
April 18 - Ipswich (A)
April 22 - Bristol Rovers (H)
April 29 - Charlton (A)
May 7 - Plymouth (H)
Average league position of opponents: 12.8
Average based on opposition home/away record: 13.2
Among the easiest of schedules in the bottom half, Vale face three relegation candidates in Oxford, Cambridge and Accrington - two of which are at home - and a number of fellow mid-table sides plus that finale against Plymouth could prove to be a promotion party for the opposition.
17. Cheltenham Town (43pts, -15)
March 29 - Sheffield Wednesday (H)
April 1 - Burton (H)
April 7 - Lincoln (A)
April 10 - Ipswich (H)
April 15 - MK Dons (A)
April 22 - Forest Green (H)
April 25 - Oxford (A)
April 29 - Wycombe (A)
May 7 - Charlton (H)
Average league position of opponents: 13.2
Average based on opposition home/away record: 13.6
Wade Elliott has done a fine job up the M5 on one of the smallest budgets in the division and a recent spark of good form has set themselves up nicely for the final 10 games which, Sheffield Wednesday and Ipswich aside, looks very agreeable.
18. Burton Albion (41pts, -23)
April 1 - Cheltenham (A)
April 7 - Barnsley (H)
April 10 - Charlton (A)
April 15 - Sheffield Wednesday (H)
April 18 - Bolton (H)
April 22 - Derby (A)
April 25 - Lincoln (A)
April 29 - Plymouth (A)
May 3 - Cambridge United (H)
May 7 - MK Dons (H)
Average league position of opponents: 10.3
Average based on opposition home/away record: 9.9
Burton have managed to drag themselves out of trouble to an extent but those final two home games of the season could be absolutely vital in securing their status for 2023/24.g
19. Oxford United (37 pts, -10)
April 1 - Peterborough (A)
April 7 - Sheffield Wednesday (H)
April 10 - Port Vale (A)
April 15 - Bolton (H)
April 18 - Portsmouth (H)
April 22 - Barnsley (A)
April 25 - Cheltenham (H)
April 29 - Forest Green (A)
May 7 - Accrington (H)
Average league position of opponents: 11.7
Average based on opposition home/away record: 11.7
The Us take on three of the current top six, which probably won’t allow them to gain much ground up the table, but that final trio of fixtures looks absolutely crucial in the context of where they’ll likely be in the standings.
20. MK Dons (36pts, -21)
March 25 - Morecambe (H)
April 1 - Wycombe (A)
April 7 - Portsmouth (H)
April 10 - Derby (A)
April 15 - Cheltenham (H)
April 18 - Charlton (H)
April 22 - Fleetwood (A)
April 29 - Barnsley (H)
May 7 - Burton (A)
Average league position of opponents: 11.7
Average based on opposition home/away record: 12.2
The Morecambe game this weekend is massive for the Dons, because after that they have two play-off hunting teams and Derby which is likely to keep them wedded towards the bottom before a run of mid-table teams.
21. Accrington Stanley (35pts, -28)
March 25 - Exeter (A)
April 7 - Port Vale (H)
April 10 - Sheffield Wednesday (A)
April 15 - Fleetwood (H)
April 18 - Peterborough (H)
April 22 - Portsmouth (A)
April 25 - Bolton (A)
April 29 - Cambridge (H)
May 7 - Oxford (A)
Average league position of opponents: 11.8
Average based on opposition home/away record: 12.0
It’s a run-in that allows for points to be won, particularly at home, while that last pair of fixtures could decide the identity of one of the relegated sides. It’s worth noting in a Rovers context that as you move further down the table a lot of the sides in trouble still have to play each other which should bring the likely number for survival down even further.
22. Morecambe (34pts, -25)
March 25 - MK Dons (A)
April 1 - Barnsley (A)
April 7 - Plymouth (H)
April 10 - Portsmouth (A)
April 15 - Wycombe (H)
April 22 - Charlton (A)
April 29 - Lincoln (H)
May 7 - Exeter (A)
Average league position of opponents: 10.0
Average based on opposition home/away record: 11.3
Some difficult away trips and with the exception of Lincoln in their penultimate fixture - which might be too late - there doesn’t seem many obvious opportunities for Morecambe to make up the difference.
23. Cambridge United (30pts, -31)
April 1 - Port Vale (A)
April 7 - Fleetwood (H)
April 10 - Bolton (A)
April 15 - Peterborough (H)
April 18 - Wycombe (H)
April 22 - Plymouth (A)
April 29 - Accrington (A)
May 3 - Burton (A)
May 7 - Forest Green (H)
Average league position of opponents: 12.5
Average based on opposition home/away record: 11.4
The best run-in of them all but Cambridge are running out of time and need to get some wins on the board otherwise that very clear six-pointer on May 7 could prove to be an anti-climax.
24. Forest Green Rovers (23pts, -43)
March 26 - Sheffield Wednesday (H)
April 1 - Portsmouth (A)
April 7 - Derby (H)
April 10 - Wycombe (A)
April 15 - Barnsley (H)
April 18 - Fleetwood (H)
April 22 - Cheltenham (A)
April 29 - Oxford (H)
May 7 - Cambridge (A)
Average league position of opponents: 11.0
Average based on opposition home/away record: 9.8
With five promotion-seeking teams in succession from next Saturday across the Easter weekend, Duncan Ferguson’s side’s fate could be sealed before they enter the part of their schedule that looks less daunting.
SIGN UP: To receive our free Rovers newsletter, bringing you the latest from the Mem
READ NEXT:
