Australia's foreign intelligence chief says that there should be no automatic assumption that Australia would join the United States in any war with China over Taiwan.
The director-general of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS), Paul Symon, said that any such decision would need to be made in light of Australia's national interest.
Mr Symon was speaking to the ABC in a rare interview to mark his imminent retirement. His five-year term concludes shortly.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong is expected to announce a new head of ASIS within the next two weeks — one of the most important appointments that she will make.
ASIS is the equivalent of Britain's MI6 and the United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Its primary function is to recruit well-placed sources in foreign countries who are able to pass on information relevant to Australia's interests — to use Mr Symon's words, sources as close as possible to "the locus of power".
The looming threat of war over Taiwan
Mr Symon's successor faces the possibility of China and the United States going to war over Taiwan in the next five to 10 years.
Beijing views the self-ruled island as a breakaway province that should eventually be reunited with mainland China.
The United States has a deliberately vague agreement to provide Taiwan with the means to protect itself.
But US President Joe Biden has repeatedly said that his forces would defend the island in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Mr Symon was asked what he thought was the likelihood that Australia would automatically join the US if such a scenario played out.
"I don't think anything is automatic," he said.
"I think it's always got to be put in context and, at the end of the day, an Australian government will always act in the national interest, Australia's national interest.
"Any political leader from any nation-state in the world knows that ultimately they'll act in the nation's interests at the time."
Mr Symon said he did not know if a US-China war was a real possibility.
"The suggestion that these things are pre-ordained, they're not," he said.
"There is ample licence for leaders and humans to make a difference and to step up and to change the paths and settings that you're on."
During his tenure as ASIS chief, Mr Symon has watched Australia's relationship with China rapidly decline over trade disputes, the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic and Beijing's growing presence in the Pacific.
Asked whether he thought Australia could get to the stage where it restored a good relationship with China without jeopardising its values or interests, Mr Symon said it came down to "human agency" and "the centrality of leaders to adjust settings".
"I think that for all the right reasons, 10 or 15 years ago, the Australian public [and] the Australian government was very optimistic about its relationship with China," he said.
"Business was very optimistic and they had every right to be. We were the beneficiaries of that relationship with China.
"What's changed? Humans have made calculations that have changed the nature of the relationship.
"Can we be optimistic? Well again, [the] crystal ball is opaque on that front because at one level, on a linear path, it's hard to be as optimistic as we were 10 or 15 years ago, but I don't think these issues follow linear paths."
Mr Symon said that for "our children and our grandchildren", we can step off the linear path.
"When I say we step off, I'm talking globally, the relationship between many nations, [and] place a little bit more emphasis on peace and stability rather than conflict."
How Ukraine changed the game for spies
Mr Symon said he thought that now more than ever, the Australian public should be brought more into discussions regarding intelligence.
"It's no longer unimaginable, the prospect of major power conflict," he said.
"I think it's more important than ever that the public be informed by people like me, by national security officials, and that we elevate, to the comfort level of the government and broadly the public, elevate the discussion."
Former minister for defence Stephen Smith and former chief of the Australian Defence Force (ADF) Sir Angus Houston are currently undertaking a sweeping review of the ADF.
Their terms of reference warn that the world is "undergoing significant strategic realignment" and Australia needs to examine everything from its base locations to spending on weapons.
Mr Symon said they would present their findings to the public as well as a "highly-classified version for government" early next year.
"I think that will be another very important milestone as we look back through Australian history, as we look at the way in which we've told the story about the challenges of the times and going forward," he said.
Mr Symon said the Russian invasion of Ukraine this year has signalled a shift in the way intelligence is shared with the public and other countries.
"I think that one of the hallmarks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the extent to which the US intelligence community in particular declassified intelligence," he said.
"It helped European governments in particular — and the public — better think about or understand what should be an appropriate reaction to an incursion of that nature.
"Should we provide aid, either lethal or non-lethal, aid? Should there be sanctions imposed? I think when you declassify intelligence in an appropriate way, you give the public an opportunity to really debate it and think about what's at stake here."
Mr Symon believes the war will have a lasting impact on the way intelligence agencies operate.
"I think what happened in the early stages of Ukraine-Russia has probably set the bar high for intelligence officials going forward to do what they can to help inform not only government, but the public," he said.
Paul Symon's most anxious moment as spy chief
Mr Symon's first two years in his post were focused heavily on dangers to Australians and their sources in the Middle East, particularly Iraq and Afghanistan.
"I care about the safety of our people," he said.
"I'm always relieved when our activities are completed and my people are back home safe.
"But also [I feel] gratitude, not only to my own people, but a range of people and institutions in Australia that help our organisation do what we do."
After a 20-year mission in Afghanistan, the last Australian troops withdrew from the country in June 2021.
By the time US troops followed at the end of August, the country was already firmly back in Taliban hands.
Australia scrambled to evacuate its citizens and visa holders from the country as Taliban fighters surrounded Kabul Airport.
Mr Symon described the evacuation mission as a peak moment of worry during his tenure.
"I think Kabul last year was very intense, a very difficult situation unfolding before the world," he said.
"I had people there, I had responsibilities and obligations to sources in Afghanistan that we needed to repatriate out of Afghanistan and we did. We were successful — at great risk and with great ingenuity, frankly."
Mr Symon declared the mission to extract citizens and intelligence sources a success.
"It was such a difficult time and the risks were significant, but we did successfully achieve the mission that we sought to ourselves, in large part to give faith to and follow through with the compact that we have with our sources," he said.
"They build a relationship with us. They need to feel that our professionalism will protect them, protect their identities, and ultimately in a situation like that get them out of harm's way, including their families. And we followed through with that compact."
The government was criticised for leaving hundreds of Australians behind, as well as Afghan interpreters, embassy staff, guards and aid workers.
Asked whether an intelligence agency such as ASIS should have known the Taliban was returning to power, he said: "That's very true."
"I think that we need to clearly reflect on why the environment moved so quickly from underneath our feet," he said.
"I wish I could answer in really clear terms ... exactly why that was.
"War is a very complex activity — human will, morale, motivation was swinging very quickly, and I think there were policies at play that caused a lot of people to think very carefully about what chances there were of being able to sustain the will of the people and the will of the government."
Mr Symon said it was ultimately the job of intelligence agencies to help governments know and understand what was happening.
"I do think that we did a very good job — certainly in the latter stages we were able to help government know and understand what was going on, decisions made around the embassy whether to keep it open or keep it closed," he said.
"All of that information was provided to government but right until the end, in those last moments, very good intelligence that saved lives was also passed by intelligence agencies to our people on the ground."
The full interview with John Lyons and Geraldine Doogue can be heard on Saturday Extra on RN.
