How will the Carolina Panthers’ Week 7 matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pan out?
With the help of some props courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook, we’ll take a crack at forecasting this NFC South clash.
1
PJ Walker throws for under 157 yards
Prop: O/U 157.5 passing yards for Walker
Tampa Bay still runs a tight ship on defense, allowing the seventh-fewest total yards per game. They also have yet to allow more than 255 passing yards to any of the quarterbacks they’ve faced this season—a group that already includes Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott.
This shouldn’t instill much faith in Walker, who attempted one pass of over 10 air yards in last week’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Plus, nine of his 10 completions came behind the line scrimmage, and he doesn’t have his premium safety valve in Christian McCaffrey anymore.
2
. . . and no passing touchdowns
Prop: O/U 0.5 passing touchdowns for Walker
These pirates are pretty stingy, too. The Buccaneers are up to nine takeaways on the season, with six of them coming via the interception, and have relinquished the seventh-fewest passing yards (193.3) per contest.
In turn, Walker is usually a big play waiting to happen, often times for the defense. His propensity to force the issue is probably what led to Week 6’s ultra conservative game plan, but he and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo will need to take way more chances downfield.
And while that could led to more scoring opportunities, this Carolina offense is far too broken up—especially with two of its best players traded away earlier in the week—to get on track just yet.
3
Tom Brady throws for over 24 completions
Prop: O/U 24.5 pass completions for Brady
Speaking of opportunities, Brady and his bunch are going to get a ton of them against the Panthers. With Carolina averaging an NFL-low 53.8 offensive plays per game, that’ll give Tampa Bay plenty of time and tries to crack the defense.
4
. . . and over 35 attempts
Prop: O/U 35.5 passing attempts for Brady
Brady has thrown for fewer than 35 attempts in just two of this season’s six games—with one of them resulting in 34 tries.
5
Leonard Fournette rushes for under 64 yards
Prop: O/U 64.5 rushing yards for Fournette
The Buccaneers currently boast the league’s worst ground attack, averaging just 67.5 rushing yards per contest. And the Panthers, despite their 26th-ranked run defense, can prove rather stout at times.
Fournette, who has averaged 7.5 targets per contest over the last four games, should also see most of his output come in the passing game anyway.
6
. . . and records over 29 receiving yards
Prop: O/U 29.5 receiving yards for Fournette
As we said, Fournette is a staple in Tampa’s passing plan. He’s hit the 35-yard receiving mark in each of the last four outings.
7
D'Onta Foreman rushes for under 41 yards
Prop: O/U 41.5 rushing yards for Foreman
With McCaffrey gone, Foreman should get the lion’s share of carries over Chuba Hubbard. But the Buccaneers defense, which has allowed the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game, remains one of the strongest groups against the run.
8
DJ Moore catches over 4 passes
Prop: O/U 4.5 receptions for Moore
McCaffrey accounted for over a third of the Panthers’ passing targets last week. Those attempts are going to have to find a new home, and Moore—who saw seven of them against the Rams—is the obvious beneficiary.
9
Mike Evans records under 63 receiving yards
Prop: O/U 63.5 receiving yards for Evans
Evans, who should be headed to Canton one day, is obviously quite good. But so is Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn.
Horn, who has allowed the lowest passer rating amongst all starting cornerbacks, should follow Evans for much of the afternoon.
10
Panthers lose by more than 13 points
Spread: Panthers +13.5
Carolina is a mess right now and Tampa is looking to get on track in their pursuit of another Lombardi Trophy. The visitors take care of their business.
