When the then Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych, abandoned a deal with the EU in favour of stronger ties with Russia in November 2013, hundreds of protesters came to Kyiv’s Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square). Soon, those hundreds became thousands, eventually hundreds of thousands, forming a protest camp where blue and gold EU flags flew defiantly in the winter air.
The Euromaidan movement that ultimately forced Yanukovych to flee the country powerfully showed the desire of young Ukrainians to join their western neighbours, but until the full-scale Russian invasion of February 2022 Ukrainian membership of the EU seemed a distant dream.
On Wednesday, however, it came a little closer when the EU recommended that formal negotiations on accession should begin. The decision is not definitive; those recommendations will now go to existing member states for a final signoff in December. And even if they are approved, accession talks would be expected to drag on for years.
But for people such as Kristina Berdynskykh, a Ukrainian freelance journalist who participated in the Euromaidan protests and is now one of hundreds of Ukrainian reporters covering the war in their homeland, it is still something of a milestone.
“I am aware that the road ahead is long and it will take time, but when [the French president, Emmanuel] Macron visited Ukraine last year and expressed support for our country’s entry into Europe, I knew that there was no turning back on our path towards the union,” she said. “In Ukraine, even at the parliamentary level, the debate is no longer about whether or not to join Europe, but rather how quickly we will become members of the EU. This, this is our farewell to Russia.”
Vladimir Putin’s invasion appears to have significantly strengthened Ukrainians’ desire to join the EU. According to a survey by Civic Synergy, a project aiming to strengthen public participation in the implementation of European integration reforms in Ukraine, 52% were in favour in 2018. By December of 2022, in the midst of the conflict, that had risen to 79%.
Larysa, 49, from Balakliia in the Kharkiv region, occupied by Russians from March to September 2022, said Ukraine’s entry into the EU would only bring benefits. “It would be a very positive thing for Ukraine,” she said. “We can see it from the way Europe has warmly welcomed millions of Ukrainian refugees who are now living as European citizens in Europe.”
Before the invasion, some observers in Europe and inside Ukraine believed enlargement was “clinically dead”. The war changed everything. As one diplomat said: “Enlargement is not only back on the [EU] agenda but it is back as one of the top three issues the leaders are dealing with.”
Liubov Akulenko, the executive director of the Ukrainian centre for European policy, said there had been a “remarkable” increase in support for EU integration, even in regions that had previously been sceptical.
“Since the war began, the majority of the population across all regions of the country has expressed support for EU membership. Prior to the war, many believed that the primary advantage of EU membership would be a higher standard of living and economic benefits. However, at present, people are increasingly looking to EU integration as a means to drive reforms and enact positive transformations within Ukraine.”
Leonid Skoryk, 32, a member of Ukraine’s armed forces, is in no doubt. “It would be great if we could join the EU,” he said. “They seem happier there in Europe. Plus, we need to get rid of all our Soviet heritage.”
One of Putin’s mistakes when plotting his invasion was underestimating European solidarity. His aggression instead served to shift the strategic balance in Europe away from Moscow. In response to the invasion, the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, urgently applied for EU membership, which was formally accepted shortly after.
Ukraine, however, faces unique challenges as it seeks to meet the criteria for EU membership in the midst of war.
“Since the full-scale Russian invasion began, Ukraine has taken a significant step towards EU membership,” said Akulenko. “However, the prospect of fully fledged EU membership necessitates the acceleration of reforms and the alignment of Ukraine’s legislation with EU standards. This process requires both time and resources.
“[But] as Ukraine’s victory remains the top priority, the country’s financial and human resources are mostly directed towards this goal.”
One of the challenges faced by Ukraine since gaining independence is pervasive corruption. In 2021, Transparency International ranked Ukraine as the second most corrupt nation in Europe, behind Russia.
Many Ukrainians perceive joining the EU as an opportunity to free Ukrainian institutions from the grasp of corruption.
“The first thing Ukraine needs to do is to overcome corruption in the country,” says Oleksandr Rybachok, 37, an IT manager from Kyiv. “There must be equal and transparent rules for business and a proper tax system. There must be control over tax compliance. And people and citizens of Ukraine also have to start making changes with themselves.”
Europe also needs to change if it wants to welcome Ukraine. The EU would have to adapt its structures to accommodate a new member with a large population and economic challenges. The allocation of seats in the European parliament and agricultural subsidies are just two.
And even if Ukraine meets criteria such as reform to the rule of law and public administration, the strengthening of law enforcement and the courts, and environmental protection, the doors to Europe could still be closed.
Any one of the 27 member states has the power to veto the accession of another country, making domestic politics and what one state may find unappealing to its voters a decisive factor in deciding who enters the EU and who does not.
Dreaming, however, costs nothing, and many in Ukraine continue to do so, hoping that entry into the EU could truly represent a turning point in the conflict.
“I want to be part of the European Union,” said Katarina Zinovieva, from Kherson. “I really want it. Some may think that our priority at the moment is to free ourselves from the Russian invasion. But if joining the EU could also help to end the conflict, then we should all make an extra effort to achieve it.”
