Here are my picks among the nominees for Best Picture, Best Actor and Actress, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress.
Best Picture: Will win
'The Power of the Dog'
The story: A Montana cowpoke (Benedict Cumberbatch) terrorizes his vulnerable sister-in-law (Kirsten Dunst) and her identity-questioning son (Kodi Smit-McPhee).
In its favor: Remember when Oscar voters proclaimed their unwillingness to even watch gay Western "Brokeback Mountain" because of its same-sex lovers, giving best picture to ham-fisted "Crash" instead? Time for a do-over.
Then again: Might voters object to an all-American story that was shot in New Zealand with mostly non-American actors?
Should win: 'Licorice Pizza'
The story: In 1970s Southern California, two young people have misadventures and, possibly, fall in love.
In its favor: Paul Thomas Anderson, one of our greatest filmmakers, has been nominated for 11 Oscars, with zero wins. Embarrassing.
Then again: It's sunnier — and slighter — than the other contenders. And it's a tough movie to describe and some believe the depiction of a racist character makes the film itself racist.
Other Best Picture nominees
'Belfast'
The story: It's based on writer/director Kenneth Branagh's childhood, growing up in 1960s Northern Ireland and confused by the sectarian violence.
In its favor: Branagh's five previous nominations with no wins have earmarked him as an Oscar soon-to-be, and this movie is hard to dislike.
Then again: It's an apolitical movie about one of the most fraught political situations of the last century. Are we OK with that?
'CODA'
The story: A girl dreams of studying music but her folks, who are deaf and need her to connect them to the hearing population, don't understand her desire. (The title stands for Children of Deaf Adults.)
In its favor: It swept the 2021 Sundance prizes and it's the kind of feel-good tale voters often honor.
Then again: Like most streaming releases, its impact is tough to gauge. Also, Sundance 2021 was a long time ago.
'Don't Look Up'
The story: Scientists Leonardo DiCaprio and Jennifer Lawrence try to warn the world of an impending apocalypse.
In its favor: The biggest branch of the academy, by far, is the acting branch and a buttload of actors earned paychecks in this supersized comedy (for instance, yes, that was Liev Schreiber's voice).
Then again: This movie was better the first time Adam McKay made it, when it was called "The Big Short."
'Drive My Car'
The story: After the death of his wife, a quirky Japanese actor/director tries to rediscover his passion for work and life.
In its favor: "Parasite's" historic best-picture win two years ago may indicate that Oscar voters have become more open to foreign-language films across all voting categories.
Then again: It's no "Parasite." Long and deliberately paced, it has a much better shot at staying in its lane and winning the international feature category.
'Dune'
The story: Well, it's the future. And there's this royal family. They have spaceships. And they're fighting about ... stuff.
In its favor: It's visually impressive and Oscar voters have indicated their affection for several movies from dogged writer/director Denis Villeneuve.
Then again: It's only half a story (with the second part supposedly coming together) and movies with no acting nods tend not to win best picture.
'King Richard'
The story: An impoverished taskmaster (Will Smith) devotes his life to building careers for his compliant daughters. Their names are Venus and Serena Williams.
In its favor: The cast is outstanding (as noted by the Screen Actors Guild's best ensemble nomination) and the story is compelling.
Then again: If Oscar shines on "King Richard," it's likelier to recognize its lead actor than the movie, which leaves out a whole lotta stuff.
'Nightmare Alley'
The story: An arsonist (Bradley Cooper) becomes a carny and then a mentalist during the Depression.
In its favor: It's a lush movie by a respected talent (Guillermo del Toro, the 2018 winner for best picture and best director) ...
Then again: … who didn't get nominated himself. It's also a genre movie without much to say. And lush movies are more apt to win for cinematography, costumes or production design — "Nightmare's" other categories — than the top prize.
'West Side Story'
The story: Star-crossed Romeo — er, Tony — and Maria steal kisses between Manhattan turf wars in the late 1950s.
In its favor: Delayed a year and preceded by skepticism about remaking a previous best picture winner, it's improbably good.
Then again: Will Oscar voters repeat history? Especially when some say that, despite screenwriter Tony Kushner's fresh take, it still doesn't tell us enough about the Puerto Rican-American characters at its center?
Best Actress: Will win and should win
Kristen Stewart, 'Spencer'
The role: Princess Diana, during a turbulent Christmas week in which she resolves to free herself from England's royal family.
In her favor: Stewart keeps proving her dazzling versatility by vanishing into roles that are nothing like anything she has done before.
Then again: Somehow, she remains underrated. And response to the film was muted, possibly because director Pablo Larraín did something quite similar with (Oscar-nominated) Natalie Portman in "Jackie."
Other Best Actress nominees
Jessica Chastain, 'The Eyes of Tammy Faye'
The role: The eyes, and other parts, of televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker, who weathered scandal to become a gay icon.
In her favor: It's quite the transformation, with Chastain ladling on prosthetics to approximate the look of the makeup-addicted Minnesota native. Bonus points: Chastain also produced the biopic.
Then again: Reviews were mixed and the movie's wobbly tone sometimes blunts the impact of Chastain's work.
Olivia Colman, 'The Lost Daughter'
The role: Off-duty writer Leda, whose interactions with other vacationers send her into conflicted reminiscences about being a young mother.
In her favor: Colman is reliably fantastic in a role that requires her to convey complex emotions with very few words.
Then again: The Oscar winner from three years ago splits the role with Jessie Buckley, whose contributions as the younger Leda are hard to separate from Colman's.
Penélope Cruz, 'Parallel Mothers'
The role: A new mother who learns a secret about her child and dithers about how to react.
In her favor: It's her fourth Oscar chance, so she's in the club. The role is a tour-de-force. And the husband-and-wife nomination thing (with Bardem) is super-cute.
Then again: The only other nom for Pedro Almodóvar's melodrama is its score, so there may not be broad support for it.
Nicole Kidman, 'Being the Ricardos'
The role: Actress Lucille Ball, poised at a tricky moment in her career and her personal life in the early 1950s.
In her favor: The degree of difficulty involved in playing a beloved icon with a well-remembered look and style is off the charts.
Then again: Reaction to the performance has been split. Everyone seems to love Kidman's off-camera Lucy but some think she misses the mark in re-creations of "I Love Lucy" sitcom scenes.
Missed the cut: Lady Gaga, 'House of Gucci'
The role: Patrizia, a working-class Italian who marries into the wealthy Gucci family but grows disillusioned. Very disillusioned.
Why she deserved a nomination: Ms. "Poker Face" demonstrates that "A Star Is Born" wasn't some kind of autobiographical fluke. She's the best thing in the movie, which proves she doesn't need songs to deliver a fiery performance.
Then again: Can we talk about Gaga's spicy a-meat-a-ball accent?
Best Actor: Will win (and should win)
Will Smith, 'King Richard'
The role: Richard Williams, molding daughters Venus and Serena into all-time tennis greats who will dominate the sport for more than two decades.
In his favor: It never hurts to play the title role, and Smith's understated work puts him back in the Oscar mix for the first time in 15 years.
Then again: The Williams sisters helped produce the film, which is evasive about some aspects of Richard's story.
Other Best Actor nominees
Javier Bardem, 'Being the Ricardos'
The role: Desi Arnaz, the faithless husband of Lucille Ball, who was apparently a much cannier businessman than we knew.
In his favor: Bardem aces both the cartoonish "Ricky," in re-created scenes from the 1950s TV sitcom "I Love Lucy," and wily Arnaz, who knows people underestimate him and uses that to his advantage.
Then again: Title notwithstanding, the movie is about Lucy, not Desi, whose cultural impact ended about the time the show did.
Benedict Cumberbatch, 'The Power of the Dog'
The role: Cowpoke Phil, a mean varmint who makes life miserable for his brother's family and who has a very big secret.
In his favor: The inarticulate American is nothing like the other roles we've seen Cumberbatch play, which have tended to be noble, British and intellectual. Also, the Oscars love a Brit.
Then again: It's an ensemble movie and, while this is the right category for Cumberbatch, is he really the lead actor?
Andrew Garfield, 'Tick, Tick ... Boom!'
The role: Jonathan Larson, working on the musical he created before "Rent."
In his favor: Garfield sings, dances and shows us why Larson remains beloved 26 years after his death. And he's kind of a Brit (born in the U.S. but has the accent to prove he was raised in England).
Then again: He is an Oscar waiting to happen but playful "Tick" may not have the oomph to carry him to the finish line.
Denzel Washington, 'The Tragedy of Macbeth'
The role: Macbeth, the general who would be king.
In his favor: It's a quietly magnetic performance made even more impressive because it's Shakespeare. And Washington is always a good Oscar bet.
Then again: What looked like an awards front-runner before its release, because of the huge talents involved, has faded from memories. If three-time acting winner Frances McDormand isn't being talked about for a nomination, it's clear the movie missed with the academy.
Missed the cut: Leonardo DiCaprio, 'Don't Look Up'
The role: A scientist, trying to warn the world about impending disaster, becomes distracted by a fetching TV star.
Why he deserved a nomination: In a jam-packed movie, DiCaprio is given more to play than any of the other actors. He also veers away from his megalomaniac/tortured wheelhouse to do comedy, which is a major change of pace.
Then again: All of the characters are cartoons and DiCaprio has done better work.
Supporting actress: Will win and should win
Ariana DeBose, 'West Side Story'
The role: Anita, a seamstress and Puerto Rican native who likes to be in America but whose dreams fall apart around her.
In her favor: The role already won Rita Moreno the statuette, so clearly Anita is Oscar-worthy. Also, DeBose puts her own spin on a flashy part.
Then again: Same as best picture. Even if voters love the character and performance, there could be a feeling of been there/awarded that.
Other Supporting Actress nominees
Jessie Buckley, 'The Lost Daughter'
The role: A young academic who's not so sure she likes being a mom.
In her favor: Buckley is a hot commodity, with a string of attention-getting parts on TV and in the movies ("Judy," "I'm Thinking of Ending Things"). Bank on it: She will win best actress, sooner rather than later
Then again: Like Colman, with whom she shares the part of Leda, hers could seem like half a performance.
Judi Dench, 'Belfast'
The role: A grandmother who longs for her family to stay together but knows it's not safe for them in Belfast.
In her favor: Classy actors of a certain age often do well in this category — as Dench did when she won for "Shakespeare in Love" (23 years ago!). The film's indelible final image is all about Dench's graceful acting.
Then again: She already has won this category, and it's a very quiet performance.
Kirsten Dunst, 'The Power of the Dog'
The role: A ranch wife who hides her unhappiness with alcohol.
In her favor: It's easy for Dunst to stand out in "Dog," in which she is the only prominent woman. Although she's not yet 40, Dunst has been acting for more than three decades without ever being nominated.
Then again: It's been well publicized that Dunst stepped in when Elisabeth Moss had to drop out. Does being the second choice hurt her chances?
Aunjanue Ellis, 'King Richard'
The role: Oracene Price, wife of the title character, mother of Venus and Serena Williams, and tennis coach.
In her favor: Even though the movie downplays Oracene's contributions, Ellis makes a case that it could just as easily have been named "Queen Oracene" for her gifted, determined character.
Then again: Being left out of the SAG nominations may spell trouble (although she is nominated as part of the ensemble).
Missed the cut: Ruth Negga, 'Passing'
The role: Claire, who "passes" for white in 1920s New York City and ends up paying for it.
Why she deserved a nomination: Negga gets lots of screen time in a role that's really a co-lead with Tessa Thompson. But she makes the most of it, alternately coquettish, frightened and confrontational.
Then again: Like several of the streaming titles, this Netflix offering suffers from being a film that created a splash and then all but disappeared.
Supporting actor: Will win
Kodi Smit-McPhee, 'The Power of the Dog'
The role: A shy young man who investigates a bully who torments him and his mother.
In his favor: The Australian actor built an impressive resume in a short time and he's arguably the film's lead. Also helpful: His movie is currently favored to win it all.
Then again: This category favors veterans, as evidenced by the fact that Smit-McPhee would be the second-youngest winner (after Timothy Hutton).
Should win
Troy Kotsur, 'CODA'
The role: A deaf man, trying to comprehend his daughter's dreams.
In his favor: Kotsur's moving, rambunctious performance blossoms in the movie's best scene, when he finally comes to an understanding with his kid.
Then again: The dearth of feature credits in Kotsur's resume is both a reflection of the limited opportunities available to the veteran and a reason Oscar voters might not know his work.
Other Supporting Actor nominees
Ciaran Hinds, 'Belfast'
The role: The patriarch of an Irish clan being pulled apart by the Troubles.
In his favor: Somehow, the veteran has never attracted Oscar's notice but he's the heart of the film, creating indelible on-screen bonds with "wife" Judi Dench (you won't even notice she's 19 years his senior) and "grandson" Jude Hill.
Then again: Brilliant, overdue and in the right movie at the right time, Hinds seems to have it all, unless voters have a hard time spelling his name when they fill out their ballots.
Jesse Plemons, 'The Power of the Dog'
The role: A rancher who has spent a lifetime in the shadow of his vicious brother and is powerless to protect his sweetheart (real-life wife Dunst) from him.
In his favor: Plemons has done a ton of work over the last decade, working with all the right people (including fellow nominee Jessie Buckley in "I'm Thinking of Ending Things").
Then again: He has the least showy part in the "Dog" ensemble and he has been talked about the least.
J.K. Simmons, 'Being the Ricardos'
The role: The veteran character actor portrays William Frawley, the veteran character actor who played Fred Mertz on "I Love Lucy."
In his favor: Simmons already attracted voters' attention when he won for "Whiplash" in 2015 and gets bonus points for a dual role: Frawley/Mertz. With nominations for three of four leads, affection for "Ricardos" is strong.
Then again: It feels like a "Hey, we know that guy" nomination. Of the four key roles, his is the smallest.
Missed the cut: Bradley Cooper, 'Licorice Pizza'
The role: Jon Peters, the coke-crazed producer (and, as he repeatedly notes, boyfriend of Streisand) who runs afoul of the main characters one fateful evening.
Why he deserved a nomination: It's a flamboyant role that Cooper said helped him rediscover the joy of acting. And Paul Thomas Anderson has directed three other men to supporting-actor nominations (Burt Reynolds, "Boogie Nights"; Tom Cruise, "Magnolia"; Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master") .
Then again: All three lost.
And the rest of the nominees
DIRECTOR: Paul Thomas Anderson, "Licorice Pizza"; Kenneth Branagh, "Belfast"; Jane Campion, "The Power of the Dog"; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, "Drive My Car"; Steven Spielberg, "West Side Story"
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: "Belfast"; "Don't Look Up" ; "King Richard"; "Licorice Pizza"; "The Worst Person in the World"
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: "CODA"; "Drive My Car"; "Dune"; "The Lost Daughter"; "The Power of the Dog"
INTERNATIONAL: "Drive My Car" (Japan); "Flee" (Denmark); "The Hand of God" (Italy); "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom" (Bhutan); "The Worst Person in the World" (Norway)
ANIMATED: "Encanto"; "Flee"; "Luca"; "The Mitchells vs. The Machine"; "Raya and the Last Dragon"
DOCUMENTARY: "Ascension"; "Attica"; "Flee"; "Summer of Soul"; "Writing With Fire"
CINEMATOGRAPHY: "Dune"; "Nightmare Alley"; "The Power of the Dog"; "The Tragedy of Macbeth"; "West Side Story"
EDITING: "Don't Look Up"; "Dune"; "King Richard"; "The Power of the Dog"; "Tick, Tick ... Boom!"
PRODUCTION DESIGN: "Dune"; "Nightmare Alley"; "The Power of the Dog"; "The Tragedy of Macbeth"; "West Side Story"
VISUAL EFFECTS: "Dune"; "Free Guy"; "No Time to Die"; "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"; "Spider-Man: No Way Home"
COSTUMES: "Cruella"; "Cyrano"; "Dune"; "Nightmare Alley"; "West Side Story"
MAKEUP: "Coming 2 America"; "Cruella"; "Dune"; "The Eyes of Tammy Faye"; "House of Gucci"
SCORE: "Don't Look Up"; "Dune"; "Encanto"; "Parallel Mothers"; "The Power of the Dog"
SONG: "Be Alive" ("King Richard"); "Dos Oruguitas" (Encanto"); "Down to Joy" ("Belfast"); "No Time to Die" ("No Time to Die"); "Somehow You Do" ("Four Good Days")
LIVE-ACTION SHORT: "Ala Kachuu (Take and Run)" ; "The Dress"; "The Long Goodbye"; "On My Mind"; "Please Hold"
ANIMATED SHORT: "Affairs of the Art"; "Bestia"; "Boxballet"; "Robin Robin"; "The Windshield Wiper"
DOCUMENTARY SHORT: "Audible"; "Lead Me Home"; "The Queen of Basketball"; "Three Songs for Benazir"; "When We Were Bullies"
SOUND: "Belfast"; "Dune"; "No Time to Die"; "The Power of the Dog"; "West Side Story"
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