Awards season is well and truly upon us, as Hollywood comes together to celebrate the most remarkable achievements in filmmaking over the past year. The 95th Academy Awards are set to take place in March, but before that comes the big reveal of exactly who and what have bagged a nomination.
With a host of other award ceremonies on the horizon, one need only peruse the list of nominations at the BAFTAs, Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards, or Critics’ Choice for an indication of who is likely to pick up an Oscar nod. This year’s contenders include revered filmmakers and relative newcomers, explosive blockbusters and off-centre indies.
Here we round up which films and stars are likely to pick up an Oscar nomination in the big six categories ahead of the official announcement today (January 24).
READ MORE: BAFTA Film Awards 2023: The full list of nominations
Best Picture
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- Elvis
- Tár
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Babylon
- Women Talking
This year’s Best Picture category is limited to 10 nominations for the second year running. Arguably, there are a handful of films which could be consider shoo-ins, while the other half could be much more unpredictable.
The Fabelmans, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Tár, and Top Gun: Maverick have all picked up Producers Guild of America (PGA) and Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominations, so are likely to pick up Oscar nods too. Austin Butler-fronted biopic Elvis is also expected to be named, having received a Golden Globe, PGA and BAFTA nod.
Netflix’s War epic All Quiet on the Western Front could also be in the running, having racked up 14 BAFTA nominations last week, including Best Film. Overall, the category is likely to be a three-horse race between The Fabelmans, Banshees, and Everything Everywhere, which have all fared well so far this awards season.
The former two picked up several Golden Globes while the latter earned several SAG nods. Women Talking and Babylon – despite the latter’s heavily mixed reviews – both picked up SAG ensemble nominations so could squeeze in behind the Avatar sequel, which also picked up PGA nods and recently crossed the $2bn mark in global box office.
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Best Actor
- Brendan Fraser, The Whale
- Austin Butler, Elvis
- Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Paul Mescal, Aftersun
- Bill Nighy, Living
There is a strong possibility of another three-horse race in the Best Actor category. Colin Farrell and Austin Butler both picked up Golden Globes for their performances in Banshees and Elvis respectively, while Fraser won the Critics’ Choice award for his transformative role in in Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale.
The three leading men each have a BAFTA and SAG nomination, too, so expect a tight race in this category. Nighy received a BAFTA and SAG nods for his performance in Living, while newcomer Paul Mescal has a BAFTA nomination for Charlotte Wells’ drama Aftersun.
Adam Sandler and Tom Cruise have also been tipped by several outlets for Basketball drama Hustle and Top Gun: Maverick respectively – less likely, but not unfathomable.
Best Actress
- Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Cate Blanchett, Tár
- Ana de Armas, Blonde
- Viola Davis, The Woman King
- Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh each took home a Golden Globe for their performances, with both actresses also included in this year’s SAG nominations. These two could be going head-to-head come awards night, while Cuban actress Ana de Armas may also be in the running, having picked up a SAG nod for Marilyn Monroe biopic Blonde.
Oscar-winning Viola Davis has also fared well so far with SAG, Globe and BAFTA nominations for The Woman King, while fellow SAG nominee Danielle Deadwyler also finds herself in the mix for Civil Rights biopic Till.
Best Supporting Actor
- Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
- Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
One name has dominated awards season so far this year, both for his performance in Everything Everywhere and for his remarkable comeback story. Ke Huy Quan took home the Golden Globe for his performance as Waymond Wang in the surreal sci-fi comedy having spent years out of the business.
For the child star of The Goonies and Indiana Jones to receive a nomination for an Academy Award would complete what has been an extraordinary journey for the beloved actor. Banshee co-stars Gleeson and Keoghan both earned SAG, Globe and BAFTA nominations for their performance in Martin McDonagh’s dark comedy, as did The Good Nurse villain Eddie Redmayne, who could also be in the mix.
Best Supporting Actress
- Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Hong Chau, The Whale
- Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Angela Bassett became the first Marvel star to win a major acting award for a movie based on the comic books when she took home the Golden Globe for her performance as Queen Ramonda in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. She followed that up by receiving a BAFTA and SAG nod, making her a safe bet for the Oscars, too.
Kerry Condon and Jamie Lee Curtis are also likely contenders for their performances in Banshees and Everything Everywhere respectively, with each actress receiving SAG, Globe, Critics Choice and BAFTA nods. Stephanie Hsu is expected to join her Everything Everywhere co-star in this category, having earned a SAG nomination for her breakthrough role.
Hong Chau is also in the mix since picking up SAG and BAFTA nods for The Whale, while Carey Mulligan could force her way in after impressing the Globe and BAFTA contingents for her turn in She Said, a biopic based on the investigation that exposed Harvey Weinstein’s history of abuse and sexual misconduct.
Best Director
- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
- Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
- Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
- Todd Field, Tár
- Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Three-time Oscar winner Steven Spielberg earned a Golden Globe for his semi-biographical drama, The Fabelmans, while filmmaking duo Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – collectively known as The Daniels – took home the Critics’ Choice award for Everything Everywhere. With this in mind, the smart money would suggest a tight head-to-head between the seasoned veteran and the young up-and-comers, with The Daniels also earning DGA and BAFTA nods.
McDonagh and Field are also two strong contenders, with Banshees and Tár being well received by the Globes and BAFTA contingents. Baz Luhrmann may be included following the success of his film, though his directorial efforts have so far been snubbed by all but the Globes and Critics’ Choice.
All Quiet on the Western Front director Edward Berger could be considered a dark horse if his film’s 14 BAFTA nods are anything to go by. Top Gun: Maverick director Joseph Kosinski earned a nod from the DGAs, so he could wangle his way onto the list, but a win would be nothing short of extraordinary.
The full list of Academy Award nominations will be announced on January 24, with the ceremony due to take place on March 12.
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