Perhaps it is because Arsène Wenger so often 'didn't see the incident' that he remembers things differently. The former Arsenal manager once noted that, contrary to popular belief, Newcastle United did not throw away the 1995-96 Premier League title because Kevin Keegan got angry on Sky television. Instead, he says, they lost it because they had no defence.
Even Wenger is slightly off here. Newcastle actually conceded relatively few goals that season. Ironically, the problem for 'The Entertainers' was a lack of firepower up front. But the broader point remains – when it comes to failures, we often wrongly attribute blame. And politics is no different.
The power to call a general election is a nice one for prime ministers to have. And thanks to the effective repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, Rishi Sunak has it back. As such, for months now there has been all manner of speculation about when he might go to the country.
Perhaps 2 May, at the same time as the local elections? What about in the autumn? Or – perish the thought – January 2025, which would see an election campaign take place over Christmas. For the ultimate explainer, check out this piece from the Institute for Government.
With the Conservatives consistently trailing by 15-20 points in the opinion polls, logic would dictate that Sunak waits until the last possible moment, on the basis that 'something might turn up'. Think Keir Starmer self-combusting. This was the theory that led John Major to hold on as long as he could in 1997.
Going early certainly has its risks, even when you're ahead – just ask Theresa May. Conversely, not going to the polls can backfire too – just ask Gordon Brown. But they are in many ways one and the same.
Theresa May was, on balance, right to go to the country in 2017. The tax measures in her Budget were being held up by her predecessor's manifesto, and events would go on to prove that she would need as large a parliamentary majority as possible to get Brexit through the Commons. The error wasn't her choice to go to the polls, but rather the fact that the Conservative Party ran a cult of personality campaign with a candidate lacking in any meaningful persona.
As for Gordon Brown, I reckon he was right not to go to the country in 2007. First, because he had a majority of more than 60 which he would struggle to replicate. And second, like Theresa May he was not a great campaigner, a theory given weight by his performance during the 2010 election. Brown's mistake wasn't that he didn't call the election, but that he allowed speculation to spread, and when he denied it was ever a possibility, appeared indecisive at best and disingenuous at worst.
The very fact of a parliament going four years or five is telling. If a prime minister goes to the polls after four years, it is because they think they are going to win (see: Margaret Thatcher in 1983 and 1987, Tony Blair in 2001 and 2005). If they fear they might lose, they wait for five years (see: Major in 1997 and Brown in 2010).
Yes, Major went five years in 1992 and won, David Cameron the same in 2015. But neither could be certain of victory, and in the latter's case, he was handcuffed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act and his Liberal Democrat coalition partners.
Whatever the outcome of today's by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, this parliament is almost certainly going long. The antithesis of Wengerball.
In the comment pages, Martha Gill asks whether an inquiry, in this case into Covid-19, can be devastating if no one is listening? Jonathan Prynn says London tourism is booming! Raise a glass to... Kwasi Kwarteng? While Nick Curtis celebrates the astonishing talent on London's stages ahead of the 67th Evening Standard Theatre Awards.
And finally, Jimi Famurewa reviews Kokum in East Dulwich: after the perils of Kormageddon, the first signs of curry house 2.0.
