Leo Tolstoy’s 1878 novel Anna Karenina begins with one of the most famous sentences in literature: “All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.” I don’t know how true this statement really is, but it does seem to describe recent Conservative administrations rather well.
There is a certain universality to the characteristics of successful governments. A growing economy with rising real wages, clarity of message and of purpose, a base level of unity. Conversely, unsuccessful governments can manifest in a variety of ways, each beset by their own unique set of problems.
Perhaps you lost a referendum (David Cameron), or your majority (Theresa May) or your ministers (Boris Johnson) or the bond markets (Liz Truss). For Rishi Sunak, it appears his brand of unhappiness will be parliamentary by-elections.
Now, to be clear, by-elections are quite different to general elections. Voters understand they are electing a single MP, rather than deciding on a government. They often take place in mid-term when prime ministers are at their least popular. While local issues (e.g. the Ulez in Uxbridge) frequently dominate. They ought, therefore, to come with a health warning.
That being said, by-elections are important events from which we can ascertain quite a bit about the state of the parties. And according to an exclusive poll by JL Partners for today’s Evening Standard, the Conservatives are in all sorts of trouble in three upcoming by-elections in different parts of the country.
In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Labour lead the Tories by 8 percentage points. In Selby and Ainsty, the lead is 12 points. And in Somerton and Frome, the Liberal Democrats are heavy favourites. Yet it is the more granular figures that should really spook the prime minister.
As our political editor Nicholas Cecil reports, the survey found that half of adults in Uxbridge have cut back on essentials or the “fun things that make life enjoyable”. Nearly a third are worried about the ability to pay their mortgage or rent in the coming months. And more than two-fifths of local residents, or someone close to them, are currently waiting for an NHS appointment.
And this is in a reasonably well-off area. As former Number 10 advisor Gabriel Milland points out, Uxbridge ranks 374 out of 533 English parliamentary constituencies when it comes to deprivation. In other words, its residents are on average much richer than most. So if things are bad there, what’s it like in less prosperous areas? Many of which voted Conservative in 2019.
The only silver lining I can see for Sunak – other than, you know, his fabulous personal wealth – is a couple of caveats I held back about the difference between by-elections and general elections. First, governments are sometimes unpopular in mid-term due to contentious reforms which they hope will begin to bare fruit by the end of the Parliament, perhaps on health or the economy.
Second, in mid-term voters are often comparing the government with their theoretical ideal government. Come a general election, that narrows to a clear choice between Conservative or Labour. Such a focus can help bridge a small polling deficit.
But there is scant evidence of reform. And the polling gap is 20 points, not five.
In the comment pages, Tracey Emin says she’s battling her body but she loved turning 60 with a huge, 200-strong party. Will Gompertz suggests it’s high time we started awarding audiences with their own star ratings. While Robbie Smith begs you to spare him from this garish, kitsch Barbie hell.
And finally, a new survey has found that London takeaways arrive cold more often than in the rest of the country. I’m not sure which party will solve that but they’d win in a landslide.
Have a lovely weekend.
