You remember Mondeo Man? The typical voter that Sir Tony Blair was keenest to target in 1997. In later elections there was Essex Man, Worcester Woman, Waitrose Woman and finally Workington Man in 2019, who Boris Johnson won over so successfully across the Red Wall.
Crude and ever so slightly patronising stereotypes, yes, but all of them had a rather irritating habit of proving electorally true.
So who is the group the Tories and Labour are keenest to persuade in this general election? Pollsters with close links to the Conservative campaign say it’s “Whitby Woman”. And intriguingly, who Whitby Woman votes for, and whether she votes at all, will have a far bigger impact on Britain’s political landscape than any of us currently think.
How’s that, I hear you say, when the election is as good as over? Actually, it really isn’t, and we’ll get to that.
First, who exactly is Whitby Woman? According to More in Common, the pollster and think tank who identified her, she is female, has an average age of 61, owns her own home, didn’t go to university and lives in a small town (like Whitby in north Yorkshire). She voted for Brexit, and for the Tories in 2019.
The Whitby Woman is 61, owns her own home, didn’t go to university and lives in a small town. She voted for Brexit, is “instinctively conservative” and has traditional values
What Whitby Woman most cares about has also been polled: she is “instinctively conservative” and has traditional values, says More in Common’s director Luke Tryl, also a former Tory special adviser. “She is very receptive to the security message, and particularly cares about protecting the pensions triple lock.”
And why does she matter? Two reasons. The first, because a strikingly large number of Whitby Women have still yet to decide how they’ll vote this time.
About 15 per cent of the total electorate — one in seven of us — still haven’t made up our minds. Undecideds are noticeably higher among 2019 Tory voters, at 20 per cent, and seven out of 10 of all those are female, which really is an abnormally large number at this point. Crunch the maths, and that adds up to a whacking great 1.9 million Whitby Women who are still biddable with five weeks to go.
As always in elections, every vote is not worth the same. What matters is where you are, as small movements in key seats are what decide things — which brings us on to the second reason: Whitby Woman makes up a disproportionately large chunk of the pivotal constituencies all over the country that Sir Keir Starmer must take from the Tories to get a majority, especially on England’s East and South coasts.
The seat of Scarborough and Whitby is one. It’s 113th on Labour’s target list. Remember, Sir Keir needs to gain 121 seats to get a majority of one, so Scarborough and Whitby is pretty much bang on that. Worthing (76th on Labour’s list) is another where Whitby Woman is strong, and where — funny old thing — Sir Keir made a big speech on Monday.
Rishi Sunak also seems to be buying into Whitby Woman, judging by two big policies he’s unveiled so far — national service and a tax cut for pensioners.
It’s early days yet to judge whether he or Starmer are having any success in winning her round. Tory MPs remain fairly miserable. One who is defending another important marginal told me: “I’ve been at this for a week now, and I haven’t knocked on a single door where anyone has said anything nice about the Conservative Party. The only positive is there is still no love for Starmer either yet.”
The other fact that Tories are clinging on to is that the polls usually tighten in favour of the incumbent in campaigns, as they did for Sir John Major twice and Gordon Brown (Theresa May was the big exception).
To put things into perspective here, Whitby Woman won’t save Sunak his job. Barring a massive black swan emerging, the Tories will lose power and Sir Keir will be our next prime minister.
But, and this is the most fascinating thing about this campaign, that’s kind of it. Nobody is able to be any more precise than that. Largely because the battlefield is so big, strategists in every party still have no real idea about the size of Labour’s victory or the Tories’ defeat.
Tories estimate they will win anything between 150 and 250 seats, while the Labour spread is even broader because of Scotland’s unpredictability, from 300 to 420.
That’s where the battle for Whitby Woman comes in. Who wins her round could well define the difference between a thumping Blair-like majority for Sir Keir, a thin wobbly one, or even a hung Parliament.
That in turn will determine whether Sir Keir can get much done in power, how badly the Tories implode when they lose it, and therefore how long they’ll be out of it.
In other words, the direction of British politics for the next decade is up for grabs. I know it might look like a done deal. But this general election has some road to run yet.
Hunt’s post-election dream may be music to your ears
There is a scramble among Tory ministers to find new jobs, as they can read the polls too. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is among them, I hear. He won’t be short of offers for non-exec jobs on corporate boards. But that’s not what he really wants to do: I’m told he wants to be a presenter on Classic FM.
Hunt has been cosying up to bosses at Global, which owns the station, and has gently offered his services should he soon become free. Classic FM is apparently his favourite listen, and always on at Hunt Towers. The love is reciprocated, with Global giving him free tickets to Classic FM Live.
It must be said the station likes a serious celebrity on its decks, with TV presenters Dan Walker and Charlotte Hawkins already hosting slots. The additional attraction? Ex-publishing business owner Hunt already has a net worth in excess of £15 million, so Global shouldn’t have to pay him too much.
Nigel’s naughty nickname for Tice
How bad is the blood between Nigel Farage and Reform UK leader Richard Tice? Far worse than it looks on the outside, it appears. Tice was not pleased with Farage for deciding not to stand as an MP, and then the latter didn’t turn up to the party’s campaign launch last week. The angst goes both ways. Word is Farage has taken to privately calling Tice “The Hairdresser” because of his perma-blowdried fringe.
