The war in Ukraine has sucked away so much international attention these last 18 months that the world has had little bandwidth for another crisis.
The Israel-Palestine problem seemed so entrenched that thoughts of a Middle East peace process have long since died.
In its place came a military stand-off in which the Israeli Defence Forces sought to protect the country in the absence of diplomacy.
Israel’s confidence in its military was vested in the ‘Iron Dome’ air defence system, designed to make the country an impregnable fortress.
That supposed invincibility has now been tested in the most acute way in attacks that have been likened to Israel’s 9/11.
It seems extraordinary that 2,000 rockets could have been fired from Gaza without Israeli intelligence picking up on any preparatory signs.
If such a gigantic bombardment was not enough, bulldozers have breached the border fence allowing gunmen to roam at large while motorized gliders have delivered airborne fighters deep into the heart of Israeli communities. This is the stuff of nightmares for Israel and her people.
At the time of writing 200 people in Israel have been killed, and more than 1,100 are wounded. More disturbing for Israel’s fragile psychology, dozens of her citizens have been taken hostage and the body of a female soldier has been paraded through the streets. In the shock of the moment, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has said “We are at war”.
Despite Mossad’s daunting reputation and its access to the best US intelligence, Saturday’s attacks seem to have come without warning. The situation is grave, but the comparison with the strikes on America in 2001 is an exaggeration.
The better comparison is with the October 1973 Yom Kippur surprise attack by the Arab states on Israel. The Yom Kippur war provides other useful lessons from history which policy makers will now be studying as a matter of urgency.
In 1973, the USA was managing both the death throes of the Vietnam War and exploring ways to reach détente with the Soviet Union. With the start of war in the Middle East, Nixon and Kissinger had to manage yet another complex problem simultaneously. US diplomatic efforts resulted in not just a military truce, but a meaningful peace process that led, in time, to Camp David.
The United States of 2023 is a less confident power with fewer cards to play, but that is not enough of a reason to excuse inaction. Without US diplomacy, the likely outcome will be a vengeful Israeli response and a consequent spiral of insurgent violence. Israelis and Palestinians will be trapped in an unending Intifada which may, in extremis, involve Israeli reoccupation of Gaza.
How then can peace be found in such unpromising circumstances? Reasons to be cheerful are few, but there are some themes that should be developed.
First, there is less chance of a regional war than in 1973: Egypt is nowadays distant from the Palestinian cause and Syria is exhausted by her own internal conflict. Critically, the economic balance of power has swung decisively towards the Gulf states.
The Abraham Accords between Israel on the one hand and the UAE and Bahrain on the other, now have the tacit support of Saudi Arabia. Within the Palestinian movement, the attacks are led by Hamas from Gaza, but their efforts to spark violence among Fatah supporters on the West Bank have so far failed.
Saturday’s surprise attacks show the limitations of an Israeli strategy based purely on military power and therefore damage the reputation of the Netanyahu coalition.
Conversely, the attacks enhance Hamas’s prestige and will embolden the Iranian backed Hizbullah. For now, Israel will be ruthlessly focussed on rescuing hostages and exacting revenge. Efforts to mount multiple hostage rescue operations in the winding streets of Gaza will be fraught with risk.
In parallel, there will be a period of confused fighting while the remaining Hamas fighters are neutralised on Israeli territory. Once Israeli townships are cleared of the threat, Gaza knows that it must endure an unparalleled period of retributive violence from Israel.
But while the military logic of the next few days plays out in its inexorable way, the need for longer term diplomacy grows stronger.
Within the Palestinian movement, Hamas must not be allowed to swing support on the West Bank away from Fatah. The United States must work with the Gulf powers to prevent escalation. Iran must not be allowed to exploit the opportunities.
In 1973, the resulting oil price shock damaged Western economies for years. In 2023, oil prices are already very high, even before today.
From this crisis, America may not be able to rekindle a Middle East process, but there is an absolute imperative to contain this problem to the locality and not to plunge the world over a deeper precipice.
