Opposition parties are supposed to demand general elections, what with them being the only path to forming a government. Indeed, such is the power of this apparent truism that even Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour voted for an election in December 2019, despite the polls suggesting the party faced electoral annihilation.
Shorn of the constitutionally eccentric Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, British prime ministers once again enjoy the power to call an election at a time of their own choosing. This doesn’t always work out for the best (see James Callaghan not going to the country in the summer of 1978 when he might have won) but it’s a non-trivial advantage.
The next general election must take place no later than 28 January 2025. On the basis that 1) Rishi Sunak wants to squeeze every last drop out of this parliament in the hope of turning things around and 2) the Tories don’t intend on putting the country through another winter poll, the consensus is that an election will be held in the autumn of 2024.
Yet the problem with the wait-and-see-something-might-turn-up approach is that things can, to invert the popular political slogan, only get worse. Today’s wage data is a case in point. The Office for National Statistics finds that average earnings excluding bonuses rose by 7.3 per cent in May. That represents no change from the previous figure and above forecast.
This is bad for several reasons. First, it is yet another data point which suggests that, far from being transitory, inflation is bedding into the UK economy. This makes further interest rate rises likely, with some City analysts predicting they could go as high as 7 per cent. Recall it wasn’t so long ago that many hoped rates might peak at 4.5 per cent. This will drive borrowing costs higher still (today, 2-year fixes surpassed their post-mini-Budget levels) intensifying the pain for mortgage holders.
Second, elevated wage growth weakens the government’s hand when it comes to negotiations with public sector unions. Were average earnings in retreat, ministers may have felt empowered to ignore the recommendations of the independent review bodies.
As it is, the government is currently split over whether to hand teachers the 6.5 per cent rise put forward by the School Teachers’ Review Body. So the choice, as they see it, is either folding and damaging the fight against inflation, or holding firm and setting off a new round of strikes. Neither outcome is ideal.
The chancellor has already ruled out pre-election tax cuts, what with inflation still soaring and the public finances in a mess. As a result, and with economic conditions likely to deteriorate before they improve, there is a strong case that a late election suits not the Tories but Labour. Simply put, Keir Starmer would much rather take office with the inflation genie back in the proverbial bottle and interest rates falling.
There’s another reason too. By 2008, Gordon Brown was an unpopular prime minister, and went on to lose the next election despite his successful leadership during the Global Financial Crisis. Or was that *because* of it?
By 2010, having saved the world banks, voters were left wondering: what’s the point of him now? It may be unfair, but by acting decisively to avert a depression, Brown had effectively served his purpose, all while reducing the risk premium on electing the relatively inexperienced David Cameron.
So, ask Starmer about an election and he’ll tell you ‘bring it on’. In reality, having been out of office for 13 years, Labour might benefit from a final 18 months in the wilderness.
In the comment pages, Anne McElvoy says Joe Biden’s latest visit has shown us a void in the special relationship. Nimco Ali warns that Westminster is an increasingly unsafe and unhappy place for a woman. While Alexandra Jones suggests the Jonah Hill allegations show the casualties of the trauma economy are mounting.
And finally, a brief history of bizarre objects being thrown on stage: from kiwi fruit to mum’s ashes.
