The only consolation for Rishi Sunak today is that things could have been even worse. Instead of losing two of three by-elections by historic margins to Labour and the Lib-Dems, he could easily have lost all three. And if it weren’t for the issue of Ulez in Uxbridge he probably would have.
The three constituencies demonstrated that there is no area in England that the Tories might not lose — not the old Lib-Dem strongholds of the south-west, in Somerton and Frome, not the north of England, as in Selby and Ainsty (right next to the PM’s Richmond constituency), and certainly not London. Granted, in Somerton there was the aggravating factor that the sitting MP had resigned after allegations of drug abuse, but that alone does not account for the swing. And there is no extenuating factor to explain the 23.7 swing to Labour in Yorkshire. If that were replicated nationwide in a general election, Labour could gain a bigger majority than Tony Blair in 1997. And if we add to this the dismal showing of the SNP in Scotland under Humza Yousaf, Labour’s prospects at the next election look very bright indeed.
