The great return to the office appears to be stalling, if the latest passenger data from Transport for London is any guide. TfL had forecast that journeys would rise by 6 per cent in 2024/25, following an increase of 9 per cent in 2023/24. However, commuter numbers have grown by only 1.1 per cent in each of the last three months, compared with the same period last year. If current trends continue, it might be said that the capital has found a new normal.
This is bad news for TfL. The slower return to offices means it has a £16 million deficit, and is facing a £150 million shortfall in projected income over the financial year. Meanwhile, its operating surplus has been revised down by more than £100 million. This puts even greater pressure on a service that in other times might be able to reinvest into expansion and repairs. Not least on the Central line, with its unreliable carriages, or the Bakerloo line extension. The lack of footfall, particularly on Mondays and Fridays, also creates huge problems for businesses paying high rents in the expectation of a steady flow of commuters.
