As is so often the case, where the United States leads, Europe follows. Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are expected to join Joe Biden in allowing Ukraine to fire Western-supplied long-range missiles into Russia.
The US already permits Ukraine to use American High Mobility Artillery Rocket System to strike inside Russia. But it has consistently refused to allow Zelensky to use longer-range missiles called Army Tactical Missile System, which have a range of up 190 miles, citing concerns that this would raise tensions with Putin. Kyiv has pleaded for months to use these systems, which include British Storm Shadow missiles.
The decision, while significant, has therefore been a long time coming. The timing is also notable in two ways. First, it comes as North Korea has sent around 11,000 troops to fight in the conflict. And second, as Biden prepares to leave the White House in January, to be succeeded by a far more sceptical and capricious Donald Trump.
During the US presidential campaign, Trump claimed he would end the war in Ukraine, though gave no detail as to how this would be achieved. Diplomacy, talks and a ceasefire would be essential. Yet clearly there are vast risks to doing so. Indeed last week, perhaps in preparation for a shift in US policy, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held his first phone call with Vladimir Putin for two years. The next day, Russia sent an enormous barrage of drones towards Ukraine.
The world, already convulsed in major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, is set to change once again on January 20, when Trump is inaugurated. A glance at the president-elect’s cabinet picks serves as a reminder that his second term is unlikely to be as restrained as his first. Ukraine will want to be in as a strong a position come that date.
Biden's decision will also act as a deterrence against North Korea sending more troops into the theatre. But it is unlikely to be decisive. With Russia making slow but consistent gains, and a new regime in Washington, 2025 may be another exceptionally difficult year for Kyiv.
