The mayoral election, which to date seemed a drearily foregone conclusion, is looking like more of a real contest. Conservative contender Susan Hall is closing the gap with Sadiq Khan, according to a poll which suggests the Labour Mayor is just 13 points ahead of her. This is still a handsome advantage, and similar to his lead over his previous Tory rival, Shaun Bailey, at the same point in the last election (although the results are hard to compare precisely). But the result of that contest in the first round was a gap of less than five points. And the crucial difference between this election and the last is that it will be decided using first past the post; so no more transfers from small parties, from which Mr Khan has previously profited.
In other words, this is looking like a much more closely fought contest than seemed likely at the outset, even given the reluctance of the Conservative Party to throw its weight behind its own candidate. The focus will now be on the core issues of the environment and clean air — specifically Mr Khan’s radical Ulez and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods — and crime, with a focus on Ms Hall’s commitment to increase drastically the number of police. We have heard that promise before, but given the increase not just in knife crime but petty crime like shoplifting, this may well resonate with voters.
