
Of all the metrics that may foretell a Conservative defeat — from depressed polling data to shrinking GDP figures — perhaps the most prescient is the number of Tory MPs standing down at the next election.
Stephen Hammond, MP for Wimbledon (majority 628) is the latest to announce this Parliament will be his last, taking the total to 51. This figure includes former Cabinet ministers such as Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab and Ben Wallace, with more expected to follow.