After the congratulatory tweets, videos and diplomatic cables, the hard reality will sink in. Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. Clearly, this is a major turning point in the history of that great nation. But the implications are scarcely lesser for Britain, Europe and the rest of the world.
Tariffs will hurt but may be manageable. The golden age of falling trade barriers has long been over. What we must acclimatise too – and fast – is our new security situation. There is a land war taking place on the European continent. Russia, having already illegally annexed Crimea, wants to extinguish the rest of Ukraine.
Europe has been reliant on American military might to keep Kyiv in the war. The flow of aid has likely come to an end. Europe must therefore step up. The question is, however: does it have the military capacity, let alone the political will? If not, Trump may seek to impose 'peace' on Vladimir Putin's terms.
Then there is Nato, the most successful defensive alliance in the history of the world. Even if Trump does not take the US out, a key pillar of European security is now under grave pressure. The UK must now raise defence spending, not simply to show the Americans we take our national security seriously, but to demonstrate to the Russians and any other adversary that we have the capability to defend our homeland and come to the side of our allies.
Keir Starmer remains seemingly allergic to closer ties with the European Union. Even reciprocal youth visas are apparently off the table. But on security and defence, there can be no such qualms. The UK-Germany defence treaty, agreed last month, is a good example of how Britain can work hand in glove with our European allies, deepening defence ties in the way our nation already has with France.
The post-Cold War era, with its corresponding peace dividend, is over. Russia is working ever more closely with China, Iran and North Korea, who now sent thousands of soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Spending more money on defence will not be a free lunch. It will require even more difficult choices. But there is no alternative. For decades, we have relied on the US to defend our continent from foreign foes. That era, too, may be over.
